2863 Maysville Rd

Commerce, GA 30529

$279,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,833 sqft · Built 1955 · SingleFamily · Pending · 28 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,998/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax + insurance: −$268
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-152/mo
• Annual: $-1,823/yr
• Cap rate: 5.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.33%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $78,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $279k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-152 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $252k (9.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (28.4% below list).
• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($275k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $200k (28.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#271 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Jackson County (rural): math 38% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #50 of 174 in GA (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Maysville Elementary School (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #633 of 1,228 statewide, top 54%, 433 students, 69% FRL); East Jackson Middle School (math 38% / reading 36%, grade F, #164 of 470 statewide, top 35%, 544 students, 63% FRL); East Jackson Comprehensive High School (math 28% / reading 28%, grade F, #155 of 424 statewide, top 37%, 1,343 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 44% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.2%/yr); 156 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,167 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (59 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jackson County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 7 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $279k implies a 228% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.3% in Commerce — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.