2863 Maysville Rd · Commerce, GA 30529

$279,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,833 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1955 0.84 ac lot Est $341k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Rent growth +1.4/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Adorable and Affordable 0.84 Corner lot. Potential Commercial. Large Rooms<wood floors. Detached garage with pull down doors. Bldg has separate electric an telephone. Room for more space. Level an Open. Still needs repairs. Alot of potential for Investment. 3 bedrooms 2 bath with a screen porch and a carport. Hurry this home wont last long

Key facts

• Spacious lot
• Granite countertops
• Detached garage

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• DETACHED GARAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot description indicates 0.84 acre (per tax/legal description)
• Financial info: No financial or investment details listed
• HOA & community: No HOA details listed

Exterior

• Parking: No parking details listed
• Security: No security details listed
• Utilities: Water: Other; Sewer: Septic tank
• Home design: One level; Resale property; Body type: Other
• Construction: Constructed with other materials; Other roof type; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch

Interior

• Kitchen: No specific kitchen features listed; No appliances specifically listed
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms; Bedroom features: None listed
• Flooring: No flooring details listed
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Two main-level bathrooms; Master bath with tub/shower combo
• Heating & cooling: No heating or cooling details listed
• Interior features: No shared/common walls; Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: No laundry or utility details listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $279k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-152 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $252k (9.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (28.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (28.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.3% in Commerce — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#271 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Jackson County (rural): math 38% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #50 of 174 in GA (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Maysville Elementary School (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #633 of 1,228 statewide, top 54%, 433 students, 69% FRL); East Jackson Middle School (math 38% / reading 36%, grade F, #164 of 470 statewide, top 35%, 544 students, 63% FRL); East Jackson Comprehensive High School (math 28% / reading 28%, grade F, #155 of 424 statewide, top 37%, 1,343 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 44% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.2%/yr); 156 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,167 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (59 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jackson County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($275k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $279k implies a 228% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,840 (28.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.33%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $340,938
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
175 Orchard Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,776 (-3%)	8mo	$280,000	$158	74
172 Lewis Cir	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,802 (-2%)	0mo	$325,000	$180	72
2910 Old Maysville Rd	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,973 (+8%)	17mo	$325,000	$165	68
100 Wilson Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,701 (-7%)	16mo	$316,950	$186	67
414 Ridgeway St	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,757 (-4%)	6mo	$275,000	$157	60
191 Orchard Cir	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (-13%)	4mo	$315,000	$197	57
207 Wilson Garage Rd	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,862 (+2%)	19mo	$401,900	$216	52
80 Sherwood Dr Lot 06	0.71mi	3/2.5	1,939 (+6%)	7mo	$380,962	$196	49
353 Lewis Cir	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,657 (-10%)	12mo	$335,000	$202	49
192 Louise Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	2,039 (+11%)	7mo	$315,000	$154	46
91 Leigh St	0.50mi	3/3.0	1,600 (-13%)	12mo	$325,000	$203	41
228 Honeysuckle Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,571 (-14%)	10mo	$275,000	$175	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.75×
• Total profit: $136,329
• Equity at exit: $251,345

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.10×
• Total profit: $398,405
• Equity at exit: $542,036

Cash invested: $78,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30529

• Home prices YoY: 6.6%
• Rents YoY: -4.2%
• Active inventory: 156
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,998 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax from tax record: −$151 /mo · $1,815/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-152

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,191

Max offer price $252,166

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $6	-5% $-73	+0% $-152	+5% $-231	+10% $-310
Rent	-10% $-310	-5% $-231	+0% $-152	+5% $-73	+10% $6
Rate	-1.0pp $-11	-0.5pp $-81	base $-152	+0.5pp $-224	+1.0pp $-298

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,750
• Closing costs: $8,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
48 Leigh St Commerce, GA	3.0	2.0	1670	$1,950	$1.17	45d	1	0.49mi
100 Heritage Hills Dr Commerce, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1087	$1,503	$1.38	15d	1	1.05mi
9 Nolana Dr Commerce, GA	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.0	2254	$1,650	$0.73	15d	1	1.12mi
1642 S Broad St Commerce, GA	2.0	2.0	1613	$2,200	$1.36	15d	1	1.14mi
2446 Remington Dr Commerce, GA	4.0	2.5	2432	$2,500	$1.03	15d	1	1.39mi
2434 Remington Dr Commerce, GA	4.0	2.5	2432	$2,500	$1.03	15d	1	1.40mi
71 Northwood Dr Commerce, GA	3.0	3.0	1933	$2,400	$1.24	15d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 39 events

1. 2026-06-22
   statusdays on market $279,000 Pending 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $279,000 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,000 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,000 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $279,000 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   remarks 333-char remark
10. 2026-06-10
    pricedays on market $279,000 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $339,000 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $339,000 Active 16 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $339,000 Active 15 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $339,000 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $339,000 Active 9 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $339,000 Active 8 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $339,000 Active 7 DOM
18. 2026-05-21
    listed $339,000 Active
19. 2026-04-17
    historical $1,850
20. 2026-03-18
    listed $1,850
21. 2021-01-19
    historical
22. 2020-11-05
    price $189,000
23. 2020-10-22
    price $202,020
24. 2020-10-18
    listed $199,000 New
25. 2017-04-03
    soldstatus $85,000
26. 2017-03-28
    soldstatus $85,000 Sold 346-char remark

    Show marketing remark (346 chars)

    Adorable and Affordable 0.84 Corner lot. Potential Commercial. Large Rooms&lt;wood floors. Detached garage with pull down doors. Bldg has separate electric an telephone. Room for more space. Level an Open. Still needs repairs. Alot of potential for Investment. 3 bedrooms 2 bath with a screen porch and a carport. Hurry this home wont last long

27. 2017-03-28
    soldstatus $85,000 Sold

    Show marketing remark (346 chars)

    Adorable and Affordable 0.84 Corner lot. Potential Commercial. Large Rooms&lt;wood floors. Detached garage with pull down doors. Bldg has separate electric an telephone. Room for more space. Level an Open. Still needs repairs. Alot of potential for Investment. 3 bedrooms 2 bath with a screen porch and a carport. Hurry this home wont last long

28. 2017-03-22
    status Under Contract

    Show marketing remark (346 chars)

    Adorable and Affordable 0.84 Corner lot. Potential Commercial. Large Rooms&lt;wood floors. Detached garage with pull down doors. Bldg has separate electric an telephone. Room for more space. Level an Open. Still needs repairs. Alot of potential for Investment. 3 bedrooms 2 bath with a screen porch and a carport. Hurry this home wont last long

29. 2017-03-22
    historical Contingent - Due Diligence 346-char remark

    Show marketing remark (346 chars)

    Adorable and Affordable 0.84 Corner lot. Potential Commercial. Large Rooms&lt;wood floors. Detached garage with pull down doors. Bldg has separate electric an telephone. Room for more space. Level an Open. Still needs repairs. Alot of potential for Investment. 3 bedrooms 2 bath with a screen porch and a carport. Hurry this home wont last long

30. 2017-01-23
    status Back on Market

    Show marketing remark (346 chars)

    Adorable and Affordable 0.84 Corner lot. Potential Commercial. Large Rooms&lt;wood floors. Detached garage with pull down doors. Bldg has separate electric an telephone. Room for more space. Level an Open. Still needs repairs. Alot of potential for Investment. 3 bedrooms 2 bath with a screen porch and a carport. Hurry this home wont last long

31. 2017-01-23
    status Active 346-char remark

    Show marketing remark (346 chars)

    Adorable and Affordable 0.84 Corner lot. Potential Commercial. Large Rooms&lt;wood floors. Detached garage with pull down doors. Bldg has separate electric an telephone. Room for more space. Level an Open. Still needs repairs. Alot of potential for Investment. 3 bedrooms 2 bath with a screen porch and a carport. Hurry this home wont last long

32. 2017-01-13
    status Under Contract

    Show marketing remark (346 chars)

    Adorable and Affordable 0.84 Corner lot. Potential Commercial. Large Rooms&lt;wood floors. Detached garage with pull down doors. Bldg has separate electric an telephone. Room for more space. Level an Open. Still needs repairs. Alot of potential for Investment. 3 bedrooms 2 bath with a screen porch and a carport. Hurry this home wont last long

33. 2017-01-13
    historical Contingent - Due Diligence 346-char remark

    Show marketing remark (346 chars)

    Adorable and Affordable 0.84 Corner lot. Potential Commercial. Large Rooms&lt;wood floors. Detached garage with pull down doors. Bldg has separate electric an telephone. Room for more space. Level an Open. Still needs repairs. Alot of potential for Investment. 3 bedrooms 2 bath with a screen porch and a carport. Hurry this home wont last long

34. 2016-12-22
    price $89,000

    Show marketing remark (346 chars)

    Adorable and Affordable 0.84 Corner lot. Potential Commercial. Large Rooms&lt;wood floors. Detached garage with pull down doors. Bldg has separate electric an telephone. Room for more space. Level an Open. Still needs repairs. Alot of potential for Investment. 3 bedrooms 2 bath with a screen porch and a carport. Hurry this home wont last long

35. 2016-12-22
    price $89,000 346-char remark

    Show marketing remark (346 chars)

    Adorable and Affordable 0.84 Corner lot. Potential Commercial. Large Rooms&lt;wood floors. Detached garage with pull down doors. Bldg has separate electric an telephone. Room for more space. Level an Open. Still needs repairs. Alot of potential for Investment. 3 bedrooms 2 bath with a screen porch and a carport. Hurry this home wont last long

36. 2016-11-30
    listed $95,000 New
37. 2016-11-27
    listed $95,000 Active 346-char remark

    Show marketing remark (346 chars)

    Adorable and Affordable 0.84 Corner lot. Potential Commercial. Large Rooms&lt;wood floors. Detached garage with pull down doors. Bldg has separate electric an telephone. Room for more space. Level an Open. Still needs repairs. Alot of potential for Investment. 3 bedrooms 2 bath with a screen porch and a carport. Hurry this home wont last long

38. 2006-10-02
    soldstatus $140,000
39. 2006-10-02
    soldstatus $140,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,815 · $151/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,567 · $214/mo
• Expected delta: +$751/yr (+$63/mo · 41.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 15% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,981
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,628
• − Property taxes: −$1,815
• − Insurance: −$1,395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,918
• − Management: −$1,918
• − Depreciation: −$8,116
• Taxable loss: −$6,811
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,635
• After-tax cash flow: $-188/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson County
• NCES district ID: 1302940
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $56,773
• Composite: 33.08/100
• National rank: #5566
• State rank: #50 of 174 in GA

Livability — Commerce

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #271
• US rank: #14693

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Jackson County · 50,436 people
• City population: 12,874
• Metro: Jefferson, GA
• Population (ZIP): 12,874
• Household income: $62,168
• Rent vs Own: 38.0% rent · 62.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 297.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,403 people
• By 2030: 70,771 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 75,050 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 78,022 · +14.1%
• By 2075: 82,646 · +20.8%
• By 2100: 80,701 · +18.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Black 11% Two or more races 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.1) · D 22.2% · R 77.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.8pp no change · 2008: -55.9pp · 2024: -55.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.1 2020: R+58.0 2016: R+63.9 2012: R+62.9 2008: R+55.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.53%
• Current HPI: 458.5304
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.25%
• Metro: Jefferson, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+142.1% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $339,000 FMLS
• 2026-04-17 Rental Removed $1,850 REDFIN
• 2026-03-18 Listed for Rent $1,850 REDFIN
• 2021-01-19 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2020-11-05 Price Changed $189,000 GAMLS
• 2020-10-22 Price Changed $202,020 GAMLS
• 2020-10-18 Listed $199,000 GAMLS
• 2017-04-03 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2017-03-28 Sold (MLS) $85,000 GAMLS
• 2017-03-28 Sold (MLS) $85,000 FMLS
• 2017-03-22 Pending — GAMLS
• 2017-03-22 Contingent — FMLS
• 2017-01-23 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2017-01-23 Relisted — FMLS
• 2017-01-13 Pending — GAMLS
• 2017-01-13 Contingent — FMLS
• 2016-12-22 Price Changed $89,000 GAMLS
• 2016-12-22 Price Changed $89,000 FMLS
• 2016-11-30 Listed $95,000 GAMLS
• 2016-11-27 Listed $95,000 FMLS
• 2006-10-02 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 2006-10-02 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,815 · +14.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.