1 bd · 1.0 ba ·
826 sqft ·
Built 1917
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 13 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$915/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$367
Tax + insurance
−$217
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$192
Net cashflow
$140/mo
Annual
$1,680/yr
Cap rate
8.70%
Cash-on-cash
8.58%
DSCR
1.38
1% rule
1.31%
Cash to close
$19,572
Investor read
This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $140 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($915 rent vs $70k).
Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 79/100 on livability (#122 in IL, #2,138 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
Springfield SD 186 (urban): math 17% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #438 of 620 in IL (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Black Hawk Elem School (math 5% / reading 15%, grade F, #1,477 of 2,056 statewide, top 74%, 246 students, 0% FRL); Jefferson Middle School (math 3% / reading 8%, grade F, #635 of 665 statewide, top 95%, 539 students, 0% FRL); Springfield Southeast High Sch (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #397 of 693 statewide, top 61%, 1,261 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 64% district-wide (64 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price; built in 1917 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.3%/yr); 177 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 225 units permitted in Sangamon County in 2024 (48 in 5+ unit buildings).
Sangamon County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.3% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 4.9% in Springfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1917 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-J3WA3A2H8TF4Y2
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29