4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,524 sqft ·
Built —
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 19 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,809/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,206
Tax + insurance
−$226
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$380
Net cashflow
$-2/mo
Annual
$-23/yr
Cap rate
6.28%
Cash-on-cash
-0.04%
DSCR
1.00
1% rule
0.79%
Cash to close
$64,372
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2 ($-23/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $230k (0.1% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (21.3% below list).
It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $181k (21.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 70/100 on livability (#57 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
Brookland School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #47 of 238 in AR (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: 117 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 926 units permitted in Craighead County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).
Craighead County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
6 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $159k; 45% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.1% in Brookland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-J3Z8DBB5SEN0EH
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29