4860 Green Ash Ln #4860

Hamilton, NJ 08330

$229,000D-

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 992 sqft · Built 1992 · Townhouse · Active · 9 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,167/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax + insurance: −$382
• HOA: −$355
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$455
• Net cashflow: $-226/mo
• Annual: $-2,708/yr
• Cap rate: 5.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.22%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $64,120

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $229k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-226 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $196k (14.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (5.4% below list).
• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $196k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Hamilton Township School District (suburban): math 9% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #401 of 472 in NJ (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: George L. Hess Educational Complex (math 8% / reading 32%, grade F, #990 of 1,303 statewide, top 76%, 1,363 students, 53% FRL); William Davies Middle School (math 10% / reading 41%, grade F, #359 of 431 statewide, top 84%, 930 students, 51% FRL); Oakcrest High School (math 9% / reading 36%, grade F, #342 of 399 statewide, top 86%, 914 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 55% FRL vs 37% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 244 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 672 units permitted in Atlantic County in 2024 (258 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Atlantic County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $229k implies a 129% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.