4860 Green Ash Ln #4860 · Hamilton, NJ 08330

$229,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 992 sqft · Townhouse · 9 Days on market

Built 1992 Est $216k · 6% over $355/mo HOA · 16% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• ARV discount +4.8/15.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Short sale, but bank said they can act quickly. Take advantage of the great low rates and this crazy real estate market and own instead of renting.

Key facts

• Modern kitchen
• Granite countertops
• Vinyl plank flooring

Tags

• HARDING RUN 2 COMPLEX
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• MODERN KITCHEN
• WHITE SHAKER CABINETRY
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• SUBWAY-TILE BACKSPLASH

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $355; Association-managed; Association dues include amenities, insurance, management, trash, and pool; Community amenities include clubhouse/clubroom and pool

Exterior

• Parking: One assigned exterior parking space; No garage
• Utilities: Public sewer; Public water
• Home design: Condo unit in Harding Run 2; 3–5 story building; Unit has 3 levels
• Construction: Building age: 25+ years
• Exterior features: Brick face and vinyl exterior; Lot dimensions approximately 24 x 42; Not waterfront; Floodplain: No; Pets allowed

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen; Disposal; Dishwasher; Gas stove; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Unit spans 3 levels
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Ceiling fan(s); Forced air heating; Natural gas
• Interior features: Disposal; Dishwasher; Dryer; Gas stove; Microwave; Refrigerator; Washer; Ceiling fan(s); Central air; Forced air heating; Natural gas heating; Eat-in kitchen; Laundry/utility room
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry/utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-226 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $196k (14.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (5.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Hamilton Township School District (suburban): math 9% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #401 of 472 in NJ (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: George L. Hess Educational Complex (math 8% / reading 32%, grade F, #990 of 1,303 statewide, top 76%, 1,363 students, 53% FRL); William Davies Middle School (math 10% / reading 41%, grade F, #359 of 431 statewide, top 84%, 930 students, 51% FRL); Oakcrest High School (math 9% / reading 36%, grade F, #342 of 399 statewide, top 86%, 914 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 55% FRL vs 37% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 244 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 672 units permitted in Atlantic County in 2024 (258 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Atlantic County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $229k implies a 129% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,349 (14.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.22%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $216,256
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4772 Summersweet Dr	0.03mi	2/1.5	992 (0%)	6mo	$230,000	$232	94
4775 Andorea Dr	0.08mi	2/2.0	960 (-3%)	1mo	$255,000	$266	88
4806 Green Ash Ln	0.06mi	2/1.5	992 (0%)	15mo	$227,000	$229	85
4776 Summersweet Dr #4776	0.03mi	2/1.5	992 (0%)	18mo	$220,000	$222	83
4944 Rosebay Pl	0.11mi	2/1.5	1,080 (+9%)	1mo	$235,000	$218	79
4952 Winterbury #4952	0.13mi	2/1.5	1,080 (+9%)	1mo	$215,000	$199	78
4934 Winterbury Dr #86	0.12mi	2/1.5	1,080 (+9%)	3mo	$225,000	$208	77
4768 Summersweet Dr	0.03mi	2/1.5	1,112 (+12%)	12mo	$239,000	$215	68
4861 Hawthorne Ln #230	0.05mi	2/1.5	1,080 (+9%)	17mo	$235,000	$218	68
4887 Bayberry Pl #4887	0.05mi	2/1.0	1,084 (+9%)	16mo	$200,000	$185	67
4716 Boxwood Pl Pl #309	0.06mi	2/1.5	1,112 (+12%)	14mo	$216,500	$195	65
4954 Deer Run Rd	0.09mi	2/1.5	1,112 (+12%)	13mo	$239,900	$216	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $110,599
• Equity at exit: $206,301

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.26×
• Total profit: $337,496
• Equity at exit: $444,897

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08330

• Home prices YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 244
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,167 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$286 /mo · $3,435/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$355
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$455
• Net cashflow: $-226

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,453

Max offer price $196,349

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-67	-5% $-147	+0% $-226	+5% $-305	+10% $-384
Rent	-10% $-397	-5% $-311	+0% $-226	+5% $-140	+10% $-54
Rate	-1.0pp $-110	-0.5pp $-167	base $-226	+0.5pp $-285	+1.0pp $-345

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1932 Cologne Ave Mays Landing, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$1,825	$2.35	15d	1	0.66mi
3401 Montgomery Dr Mays Landing, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1192	$2,810	$2.36	15d	18	1.02mi
2807 Hawthorn Ct Mays Landing, NJ	1.0	1.0	929	$1,800	$1.94	15d	1	1.11mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $355 · $4,260/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $229,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $229,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   listed $229,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,004
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$3,435
• − Insurance: −$1,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,080
• − Management: −$2,080
• − HOA: −$4,260
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable loss: −$6,486
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,557
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,151/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hamilton Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3406510
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $60,997
• Composite: 21.34/100
• National rank: #8372
• State rank: #401 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Hamilton

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: McKee City, NJ
• County: Atlantic County · 143,611 people
• Metro: Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 29,972
• Household income: $77,167
• Rent vs Own: 27.1% rent · 72.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1003.0

Population outlook (Atlantic County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 268,948 people
• By 2030: 264,497 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 252,261 · -6.2%
• By 2050: 237,846 · -11.6%
• By 2075: 210,650 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 180,234 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 16% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 7% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Atlantic

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 50.7% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: 15.1pp · 2024: -3.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.0 2020: D+6.7 2016: D+6.2 2012: D+17.2 2008: D+15.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.58%
• Current HPI: 308.5148
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+30.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $229,000 SJSRMLS
• 2011-03-23 Sold (MLS) $100,000 SJSRMLS
• 2011-02-01 Listing Removed — SJSRMLS
• 2010-09-02 Listed $119,000 SJSRMLS
• 2007-05-07 Sold (MLS) $178,000 SJSRMLS
• 2007-03-23 Listing Removed — SJSRMLS
• 2007-01-05 Listed $175,000 SJSRMLS