299 Fairport Rd

East Rochester, NY 14445

$289,000D+

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,242 sqft · Built 1979 · SingleFamily · Pending · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,512/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
• Tax + insurance: −$482
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$528
• Net cashflow: $-13/mo
• Annual: $-153/yr
• Cap rate: 6.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.19%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $80,920

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $289k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-13 ($-153/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $287k (0.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (13.1% below list).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $251k (13.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#155 in NY, #2,400 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime D.
• East Rochester Union Free School District (suburban): math 50% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #371 of 590 in NY (top 63%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: East Rochester Elementary School (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 458 students, 48% FRL); East Rochester Junior-Senior High School (math 57% / reading 47%, grade D+, #946 of 1,100 statewide, top 88%, 515 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $165k; list at $289k implies a 75% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.5% in East Rochester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.