14192 Tuolumne Rd #31

East Sonora, CA 95370

$75,000B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Built 1991 · Manufactured · Active · 69 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,616/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax + insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $758/mo
• Annual: $9,096/yr
• Cap rate: 18.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.31%
• DSCR: 2.93
• 1% rule: 2.15%
• Cash to close: $21,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $758 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $70k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#501 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A-, health & safety A-; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Curtis Creek Elementary (rural): math 29% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #278 of 517 in CA (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 301 active listings in the ZIP; 60 units permitted in Tuolumne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tuolumne County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $75k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.