14192 Tuolumne Rd #31 · East Sonora, CA 95370

$75,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Manufactured public records · 67 Days on market

Built 1991 Est $77k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.7/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

1991 2 bedroom 1 bath single wide in Motherlode Mobile Home Park. Dining in kitchen with breakfast bar. indoor laundry, carport parking enough for 2 cars, fenced in yard with sprinkler and drip systems, Storage shed in carport area.Relax and enjoy sitting on the covered porch or patio area. Home is located near shopping and town.

Key facts

• New composition roof
• Fenced front yard
• Low-maintenance home

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING
• NEW COMPOSITION ROOF
• FENCED FRONT YARD
• MATURE TREES
• ESTABLISHED LANDSCAPING
• LOW-MAINTENANCE HOME

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Located in Mother Lode Mobile Estates (senior community); Clubhouse; Community laundry; Guest parking; Pet restrictions; pet approvals and limits apply

Exterior

• Parking: Carport; Guest parking
• Utilities: Public sewer; Individual gas meter
• Home design: Manufactured in park (mobile home); Single-wide model KLW 1403; Main entry at street level; Wood skirting
• Construction: Wood siding; Crawl space foundation with pillar/post/pier
• Exterior features: Front porch with awning(s); Front yard; Corner lot; Partially fenced; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate counters and solid surface counters; Disposal; Gas range (free‑standing); Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (street level, main entry)
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with shower-over-tub
• Heating & cooling: Wall furnace (propane); No air conditioning
• Interior features: Solid surface counters; No additional rooms; Laminate flooring
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups only; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $758 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#501 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A-, health & safety A-; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Curtis Creek Elementary (rural): math 29% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #278 of 517 in CA (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 299 active listings in the ZIP; 60 units permitted in Tuolumne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tuolumne County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $75k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.31%
• DSCR: 2.93
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $77,000
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14192 Tuolumne Rd #67	0.00mi	2/1.0	960 (-4%)	1mo	$74,000	$77	92

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $36,146
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.46×
• Total profit: $93,736
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95370

• Active inventory: 299
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,616 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$94 /mo · $1,125/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $758

Break-even live

Break-even rent $656

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $810	-5% $784	+0% $758	+5% $732	+10% $706
Rent	-10% $630	-5% $694	+0% $758	+5% $822	+10% $886
Rate	-1.0pp $796	-0.5pp $777	base $758	+0.5pp $739	+1.0pp $719

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $75,000 Active 67 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 66 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 65 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 64 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $75,000 Active 61 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $75,000 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $75,000 Active 58 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $75,000 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,000 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $75,000 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $75,000 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $75,000 Active 51 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 50 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 49 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 48 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $75,000 Active 47 DOM
19. 2026-04-13
    listed $80,000 Active
20. 2021-12-22
    soldstatus $30,000 331-char remark

    Show marketing remark (331 chars)

    1991 2 bedroom 1 bath single wide in Motherlode Mobile Home Park. Dining in kitchen with breakfast bar. indoor laundry, carport parking enough for 2 cars, fenced in yard with sprinkler and drip systems, Storage shed in carport area.Relax and enjoy sitting on the covered porch or patio area. Home is located near shopping and town.

21. 2021-08-10
    listed $39,999 331-char remark

    Show marketing remark (331 chars)

    1991 2 bedroom 1 bath single wide in Motherlode Mobile Home Park. Dining in kitchen with breakfast bar. indoor laundry, carport parking enough for 2 cars, fenced in yard with sprinkler and drip systems, Storage shed in carport area.Relax and enjoy sitting on the covered porch or patio area. Home is located near shopping and town.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,386
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,125
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,551
• − Management: −$1,551
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $8,402
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,016
• After-tax cash flow: $7,079/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Curtis Creek Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0610320
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $54,986
• Composite: 29.96/100
• National rank: #6372
• State rank: #278 of 517 in CA

Livability — East Sonora

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #501
• US rank: #17006

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment C Housing B- Health & safety A- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Sonora, CA
• City population: 28,373
• Population (ZIP): 28,373

Population outlook (Tuolumne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,349 people
• By 2030: 48,708 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 45,284 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 42,575 · -15.4%
• By 2075: 36,827 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 30,369 · -39.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Russian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuolumne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.9) · D 37.9% · R 59.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.2pp toward R · 2008: -12.7pp · 2024: -21.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.9 2020: R+18.8 2016: R+20.9 2012: R+15.9 2008: R+12.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -322.67%
• Current HPI: 130.9637
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+100.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Listed $80,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2021-12-22 Sold (MLS) $30,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2021-08-10 Listed $39,999 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $73 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.