410 N 5th St

Elsberry, MO 63343

$90,900B+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,172 sqft · Built 1918 · SingleFamily · Pending · 258 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,133/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$477
• Tax + insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$238
• Net cashflow: $340/mo
• Annual: $4,082/yr
• Cap rate: 10.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.04%
• DSCR: 1.71
• 1% rule: 1.25%
• Cash to close: $25,452

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $91k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $340 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $91k).
• It's been on market 258 days — a 12% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $80k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $628 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#443 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, crime B+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Elsberry R-II (rural): math 35% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #156 of 324 in MO (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Clarence Cannon Elem. (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #676 of 1,115 statewide, top 66%, 313 students, 54% FRL); Ida Cannon Middle (math 40% / reading 43%, grade F, #163 of 391 statewide, top 44%, 252 students, 48% FRL); Elsberry High (math 32% / reading 62%, grade D-, #155 of 521 statewide, top 32%, 249 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 46% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1918 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 149 units permitted in Lincoln County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lincoln County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $91k implies a 304% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 258 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1918 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.