410 N 5th St · Elsberry, MO 63343

$90,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,172 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 258 Days on market

Built 1918 5,183 sqft lot Est $145k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath fixer-upper with over 1,100 sq ft of living space. Great opportunity for investors or buyers looking to renovate and add value. Sold as-is.

Key facts

• 5,183 sq ft lot
• Built 1918
• Listed 258 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service by Ameren; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: City lot; Lot dimensions approximately 45 x 115

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Gas cooktop; No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $91k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $340 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $91k).
• Recommended offer: $80k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#443 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, crime B+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Elsberry R-II (rural): math 35% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #156 of 324 in MO (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Clarence Cannon Elem. (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #676 of 1,115 statewide, top 66%, 313 students, 54% FRL); Elsberry High (math 32% / reading 62%, grade D-, #155 of 521 statewide, top 32%, 249 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 45% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 149 units permitted in Lincoln County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $628 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lincoln County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 258 days — a 12% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $91k implies a 304% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1918 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $79,992 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 258 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1918 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.04%
• DSCR: 1.71
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $145,328
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
410 N 5th St	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,172 (0%)	1mo	$90,900	$78	100
510 N 2nd St	0.20mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,200 (+2%)	7mo	$148,800	$124	76
513 Harris St	0.24mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,200 (+2%)	8mo	$79,900	$67	73
809 Lincoln St	0.41mi	3/1.5	1,208 (+3%)	2mo	$175,000	$145	72
310 N 4th St	0.08mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,232 (+5%)	13mo	$179,900	$146	72
513 N 5th St	0.12mi	3/1.0	1,134 (-3%)	21mo	$182,000	$160	72
304 N 3rd St	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,294 (+10%)	9mo	$129,900	$100	64
407 S 3rd St	0.44mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,088 (-7%)	6mo	$15,999	$15	57
216 David St	0.65mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,200 (+2%)	7mo	$124,900	$104	55
706 Ellis St	0.41mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,082 (-8%)	6mo	$158,000	$146	54
615 N Fourth St	0.20mi	3/1.0	1,000 (-15%)	23mo	$149,900	$150	47
818 Randolph	0.39mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,303 (+11%)	16mo	$155,000	$119	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $6,906
• Equity at exit: $13,553

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.33×
• Total profit: $33,796
• Equity at exit: $7,859

Cash invested: $25,452 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63343

• Home prices YoY: -2.0%
• Active inventory: 38
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,133 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$477
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $489/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$238
• Net cashflow: $340

Break-even live

Break-even rent $703

Max offer price $90,900

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $392	-5% $366	+0% $340	+5% $314	+10% $289
Rent	-10% $251	-5% $295	+0% $340	+5% $385	+10% $430
Rate	-1.0pp $386	-0.5pp $363	base $340	+0.5pp $317	+1.0pp $293

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,725
• Closing costs: $2,727
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-29
   historical Active Under Contract
2. 2026-01-12
   price $90,900
3. 2026-01-02
   status Active
4. 2025-12-23
   status Active
5. 2025-12-18
   historical Active Under Contract
6. 2025-12-02
   price $100,900
7. 2025-09-10
   listed $109,900 Active
8. 1997-12-12
   soldstatus $22,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $489 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $882 · $73/mo
• Expected delta: +$393/yr (+$33/mo · 80.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,602
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,092
• − Property taxes: −$489
• − Insurance: −$454
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,088
• − Management: −$1,088
• − Depreciation: −$2,644
• Taxable income: $2,746
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$659
• After-tax cash flow: $3,423/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elsberry R-II
• NCES district ID: 2911400
• Math proficiency: 35% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,931
• Composite: 33.47/100
• National rank: #5452
• State rank: #156 of 324 in MO

Livability — Elsberry

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #443
• US rank: #18062

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elsberry, MO
• Population (ZIP): 4,920

Population outlook (Lincoln County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,571 people
• By 2030: 60,050 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 61,982 · +5.8%
• By 2050: 61,790 · +5.5%
• By 2075: 58,249 · -0.5%
• By 2100: 48,815 · -16.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 4% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Lincoln

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.9) · D 21.5% · R 77.4% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -44.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.4pp · 2024: -55.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.9 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+50.5 2012: R+29.1 2008: R+11.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -5.16%
• Current HPI: 251.2071
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+304.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-12 Price Changed $90,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-02 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-23 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-18 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $100,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-10 Listed $109,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-12-12 Sold (Public Records) $22,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $489 · +7.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.