627 Dogwood Ave

Egg Harbor, NJ 08234

$440,000D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,238 sqft · Built 1998 · SingleFamily · Active · 142 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,550/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,307
• Tax + insurance: −$748
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$746
• Net cashflow: $-251/mo
• Annual: $-3,013/yr
• Cap rate: 5.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.45%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $123,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $440k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-251 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $396k (10.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $355k (19.3% below list).
• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($387k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $355k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Egg Harbor Township School District (suburban): math 18% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #311 of 472 in NJ (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Swift-Slaybaugh Complex (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #731 of 1,303 statewide, top 59%, 1,421 students, 34% FRL); Alder Avenue Middle School (math 19% / reading 48%, grade F, #265 of 431 statewide, top 63%, 843 students, 50% FRL); Egg Harbor Township High School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #169 of 399 statewide, top 44%, 2,335 students, 47% FRL).
• Market conditions: 363 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 672 units permitted in Atlantic County in 2024 (258 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Atlantic County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 30 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $215k; list at $440k implies a 105% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.