4529 Secure Ln #31

Hornsby Bend, TX 78725

$199,900C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · Built 2007 · Condo · Active · 69 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,893/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$333
• HOA: −$45
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $69/mo
• Annual: $824/yr
• Cap rate: 6.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.47%
• DSCR: 1.07
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $55,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $200k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $69 ($824/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (5.3% below list).
• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $188k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,004 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Del Valle ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #749 of 826 in TX (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hornsby-Dunlap El (math 17% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,759 of 4,322 statewide, top 88%, 599 students, 92% FRL); Dailey Middle (math 23% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,258 of 1,662 statewide, top 77%, 834 students, 94% FRL); Del Valle H S (math 17% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,354 of 1,632 statewide, top 83%, 3,460 students, 90% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 98 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 8→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.4% in Hornsby Bend — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: Kitchen cabinets — Appears dated and could be updated
• Minor: Bathtub and shower — Need cleaning