4529 Secure Ln #31 · Hornsby Bend, TX 78725

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · Condo · 69 Days on market

Built 2007 Good condition $181/sqft · 34% below area Est $302k · 34% under $45/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Appreciation +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming condo is located in the quiet Chaparral Crossing neighborhood. Beautiful one story, 3 Bed, 2 Full Bath, End unit Condo with a Living Room, Dining, Kitchen and Laundry Room/Pantry. New Roof replaced in March, 2026. Water Heater under 3 years old and HVAC under 5 years old. Community Play area and Basket ball court is closer to the unit. Located just minutes from Austin Bergstorm Airport, Tesla, Samsung and easy access to HWY 130 & 183. Rear parking pad for two vehicles and storage shed inside the backyard fence. Sideway entry from the backyard. Well cared home. Guests can park opposite side of the street.

Key facts

• Hvac
• Community play area
• Water heater

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• WATER HEATER
• HVAC
• COMMUNITY PLAY AREA
• BASKET BALL COURT
• REAR PARKING PAD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $200k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $69 ($824/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (5.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.4% in Hornsby Bend — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,004 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, employment A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Del Valle ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #749 of 826 in TX (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 96 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 8→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,906 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.47%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $301,724
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -33.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-33,511
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-44,758
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78725

• Home prices YoY: -1.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,893 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $2,998/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$45
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $69

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,806

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $207	-5% $138	+0% $69	+5% $0	+10% $-70
Rent	-10% $-81	-5% $-6	+0% $69	+5% $143	+10% $218
Rate	-1.0pp $169	-0.5pp $119	base $69	+0.5pp $17	+1.0pp $-36

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4519 Felicity Ln Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	1333	$1,695	$1.27	25d	1	0.07mi
4528 Credo Ln Austin, TX	2.0	2.5	1294	$1,775	$1.37	17d	1	0.11mi
4505 Senda Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1104	$1,675	$1.52	5d	1	0.16mi
4514 Senda Ln Austin, TX	3.0	3.0	1293	$1,750	$1.35	5d	1	0.17mi
4621 Kind Way #271 Austin, TX	2.0	1.0	1192	$1,499	$1.26	5d	1	0.20mi
4606 Kind Way #285 Austin, TX	2.0	1.0	1180	$1,750	$1.48	45d	1	0.21mi
4603 Truth Way Austin, TX	2.0	2.5	1158	$1,750	$1.51	45d	1	0.34mi
4613 Graceful Ln #500 Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,700	$1.55	45d	1	0.39mi
15218 Parrish Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1205	$1,900	$1.58	45d	1	0.49mi
15215 Parrish Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,799	$1.25	45d	1	0.52mi
15209 Parrish Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,800	$1.44	25d	1	0.55mi
15102 Walcott Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1483	$1,695	$1.14	23d	1	0.63mi
15102 Walcott Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1483	$1,695	$1.14	13d	1	0.63mi
14505 Highsmith St Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1227	$1,725	$1.41	25d	1	1.01mi
4723 Castleman Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,750	$1.25	5d	1	1.03mi
4723 Castleman Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,750	$1.25	4d	1	1.03mi
4206 Boatwright Cv Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1478	$1,850	$1.25	25d	1	1.04mi
4206 Boatwright Cv Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1478	$1,795	$1.21	13d	1	1.04mi
14700 Menifee St Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,850	$1.23	3d	1	1.08mi
3415 Crownover St Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1203	$1,725	$1.43	45d	1	1.09mi
3504 Banda Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1262	$1,650	$1.31	25d	1	1.15mi
3504 Banda Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1262	$1,650	$1.31	4d	1	1.15mi
14011 FM 969 Rd Austin, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1074	$1,332	$1.24	3d	1	1.16mi
15120 Arizona Oak Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1326	$1,750	$1.32	5d	1	1.18mi
3514 Banda Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1338	$2,850	$2.13	45d	1	1.20mi
5706 Melody Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,350	$1.96	45d	1	1.22mi
5706 Melody Ln Unit 3 Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,200	$1.83	45d	1	1.22mi
5813 Wideleaf Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1326	$1,700	$1.28	45d	1	1.36mi
3400 Barksdale Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1378	$1,750	$1.27	5d	1	1.39mi
3201 Wickham Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1378	$1,800	$1.31	45d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $45 · $540/yr
• Likely covers: water
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,900 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 66 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 65 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 64 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 61 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,900 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,900 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,900 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 51 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 50 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 49 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 48 DOM
15. 2026-05-05
    price $210,000 631-char remark

    Show marketing remark (631 chars)

    This charming condo is located in the quiet Chaparral Crossing neighborhood. Beautiful one story, 3 Bed, 2 Full Bath, End unit Condo with a Living Room, Dining, Kitchen and Laundry Room/Pantry. New Roof replaced in March, 2026. Water Heater under 3 years old and HVAC under 5 years old. Community Play area and Basket ball court is closer to the unit. Located just minutes from Austin Bergstorm Airport, Tesla, Samsung and easy access to HWY 130 & 183. Rear parking pad for two vehicles and storage shed inside the backyard fence. Sideway entry from the backyard. Well cared home. Guests can park opposite side of the street.

16. 2026-04-13
    listed $220,000 Active 631-char remark

    Show marketing remark (631 chars)

    This charming condo is located in the quiet Chaparral Crossing neighborhood. Beautiful one story, 3 Bed, 2 Full Bath, End unit Condo with a Living Room, Dining, Kitchen and Laundry Room/Pantry. New Roof replaced in March, 2026. Water Heater under 3 years old and HVAC under 5 years old. Community Play area and Basket ball court is closer to the unit. Located just minutes from Austin Bergstorm Airport, Tesla, Samsung and easy access to HWY 130 & 183. Rear parking pad for two vehicles and storage shed inside the backyard fence. Sideway entry from the backyard. Well cared home. Guests can park opposite side of the street.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 8 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,710
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,998
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,817
• − Management: −$1,817
• − HOA: −$540
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$2,474
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$594
• After-tax cash flow: $1,417/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This charming one-story condo in the Chaparral Crossing neighborhood is in good condition with a fresh paint job and new roof. Minor updates to the kitchen and cleaning of the bathtub and shower would enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Appears dated and could be updated
• Minor Bathtub and shower — Need cleaning

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint freshening — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Resale Kitchen cabinet upgrade — Modernizing dated cabinets improves resale value
• Rental Bathtub and shower cleaning — Cleaner bathrooms attract renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Appears dated and could be updated	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathtub and shower · Need cleaning	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint freshening — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Resale Kitchen cabinet upgrade — Modernizing dated cabinets improves resale value ↑
• Rental Bathtub and shower cleaning — Cleaner bathrooms attract renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Del Valle ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816620
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,322
• Composite: 19.13/100
• National rank: #8830
• State rank: #749 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hornsby Bend

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1004
• US rank: #17815

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hornsby Bend, TX
• County: Travis County · 1,299,254 people
• City population: 10,810
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,746
• Household income: $105,795
• Rent vs Own: 23.3% rent · 76.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 221.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 53% White 33% Two or more races 22% Black 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 35% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.74%
• Current HPI: 265.2823
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.45%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $210,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $220,000 Unlock MLS