316 Greenbank Rd

Southern Gateway, VA 22406

$250,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 702 sqft · Built 1967 · SingleFamily · Pending · 134 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,785/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$261
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $-162/mo
• Annual: $-1,943/yr
• Cap rate: 5.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.78%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $70,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-162 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (11.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (28.6% below list).
• It's been on market 134 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $179k (28.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#136 in VA, #4,350 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Stafford County Public School District (suburban): math 50% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #42 of 131 in VA (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Rocky Run Elementary (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B-, #536 of 1,108 statewide, top 51%, 850 students, 77% FRL); T. Benton Gayle Middle (math 45% / reading 70%, grade B, #176 of 342 statewide, top 52%, 899 students, 37% FRL); Stafford Senior High (math 52% / reading 78%, grade B, #210 of 319 statewide, top 66%, 2,117 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 22% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.0%/yr); 190 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 361 units permitted in Stafford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Stafford County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $160k; list at $250k implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 2.4% in Southern Gateway — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($129k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 134 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.