316 Greenbank Rd · Southern Gateway, VA 22406

$250,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 702 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 134 Days on market

Built 1967 1.02 ac lot $356/sqft · 29% below area Est $354k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Bring your vision and tool belt to this home. A true fixer upper opportunity in a nice neighborhood on a 1-acre lot +/-. This 2 bedroom needs substantial renovation, no kitchen and the bathroom will need a full rebuild. It needs a new septic system. Because of the home condition, its not eligible for traditional financing, ideal for a cash buyer or a renovation loan such as a 203 (k). Basement area is unfinished. Refer to document section for septic information.

Key facts

• New septic system
• 1 acre lot
• 1.02 acre lot

Tags

• 1 ACRE LOT
• NEW SEPTIC SYSTEM
• UNFINISHED BASEMENT AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-162 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (11.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (28.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $179k (28.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 2.4% in Southern Gateway — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#136 in VA, #4,350 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Stafford County Public School District (suburban): math 50% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #42 of 131 in VA (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Rocky Run Elementary (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B-, #536 of 1,108 statewide, top 51%, 850 students, 77% FRL); T. Benton Gayle Middle (math 45% / reading 70%, grade B, #176 of 342 statewide, top 52%, 899 students, 37% FRL); Stafford Senior High (math 52% / reading 78%, grade B, #210 of 319 statewide, top 66%, 2,117 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 22% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.0%/yr); 190 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 361 units permitted in Stafford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($129k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stafford County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 134 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $160k; list at $250k implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $178,545 (28.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 134 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.78%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $354,399
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: -29.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-56,123
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.18×
• Total profit: $-82,648
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22406

• Home prices YoY: -21.3%
• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 190
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,785 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$157 /mo · $1,887/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $-162

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,990

Max offer price $221,400

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-20	-5% $-91	+0% $-162	+5% $-233	+10% $-303
Rent	-10% $-303	-5% $-232	+0% $-162	+5% $-91	+10% $-21
Rate	-1.0pp $-36	-0.5pp $-98	base $-162	+0.5pp $-227	+1.0pp $-293

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2500 Green Tree Rd Fredericksburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	800	$1,972	$2.46	4d	9	1.49mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-01-12
   listed $250,000 Active 466-char remark

   Show marketing remark (466 chars)

   Bring your vision and tool belt to this home. A true fixer upper opportunity in a nice neighborhood on a 1-acre lot +/-. This 2 bedroom needs substantial renovation, no kitchen and the bathroom will need a full rebuild. It needs a new septic system. Because of the home condition, its not eligible for traditional financing, ideal for a cash buyer or a renovation loan such as a 203 (k). Basement area is unfinished. Refer to document section for septic information.

2. 2022-12-27
   soldstatus $160,000
3. 2022-12-22
   soldstatus $160,000 Closed 262-char remark

   Show marketing remark (262 chars)

   Great investment opportunity! Just over one acre conveniently located to US Rt 17 and I-95. House needs work, some rehab has already been completed. Sold strictly AS-IS. Hooked to county water, septic exists. Current soil letter for new 3 bed perc septic field.

4. 2022-12-06
   status Pending 262-char remark

   Show marketing remark (262 chars)

   Great investment opportunity! Just over one acre conveniently located to US Rt 17 and I-95. House needs work, some rehab has already been completed. Sold strictly AS-IS. Hooked to county water, septic exists. Current soil letter for new 3 bed perc septic field.

5. 2022-11-30
   listed $160,000 Active 262-char remark

   Show marketing remark (262 chars)

   Great investment opportunity! Just over one acre conveniently located to US Rt 17 and I-95. House needs work, some rehab has already been completed. Sold strictly AS-IS. Hooked to county water, septic exists. Current soil letter for new 3 bed perc septic field.

6. 2022-11-10
   historical $160,000 262-char remark

   Show marketing remark (262 chars)

   Great investment opportunity! Just over one acre conveniently located to US Rt 17 and I-95. House needs work, some rehab has already been completed. Sold strictly AS-IS. Hooked to county water, septic exists. Current soil letter for new 3 bed perc septic field.

7. 1985-06-01
   soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,887 · $157/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,050 · $171/mo
• Expected delta: +$163/yr (+$14/mo · 8.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 15% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,425
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$1,887
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,714
• − Management: −$1,714
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$6,416
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,540
• After-tax cash flow: $-403/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stafford County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103660
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $96,389
• Composite: 54.61/100
• National rank: #1336
• State rank: #42 of 131 in VA

Livability — Southern Gateway

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #136
• US rank: #4350

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment B Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Stafford County · 161,536 people
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 27,367
• Household income: $129,167
• Rent vs Own: 23.7% rent · 76.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 680.0

Population outlook (Stafford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 169,882 people
• By 2030: 183,934 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 211,031 · +24.2%
• By 2050: 235,391 · +38.6%
• By 2075: 297,080 · +74.9%
• By 2100: 334,680 · +97.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 14% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 10% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stafford

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.6% · R 48.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -6.3pp · 2024: 0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.8 2020: D+3.3 2016: R+9.1 2012: R+8.8 2008: R+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.26%
• Current HPI: 274.51
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.00%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+455.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-12 Listed $250,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-12-27 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records
• 2022-12-22 Sold (MLS) $160,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-12-06 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-11-30 Listed $160,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-11-10 Coming Soon $160,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1985-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,887 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.