291 Behr Rd

Jeffersonville, NY 12748

$389,000D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,309 sqft · Built 1910 · SingleFamily · Pending · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,991/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,040
• Tax + insurance: −$405
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $-873/mo
• Annual: $-10,471/yr
• Cap rate: 3.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.61%
• DSCR: 0.57
• 1% rule: 0.51%
• Cash to close: $108,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $389k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-873 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $235k (39.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (48.8% below list).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($383k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $199k (48.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $41k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $39k appreciation (9.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#909 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools D+, crime D-, amenities F.
• Sullivan West Central School District (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #436 of 590 in NY (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 28 active listings in the ZIP; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $130k; list at $389k implies a 199% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$67k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 3.6% vs local median 2.2% in Jeffersonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.