291 Behr Rd · Jeffersonville, NY 12748

$389,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,309 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1910 1.77 ac lot $297/sqft · at area comps Est $462k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.6/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.3/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this sweet farmhouse near Jeffersonville on 1.77 acres! A warm and cozy home in move-in condition is calling you! Enter through a side door after parking your car in the only 8-year old 2-car garage with 2 automatic openers. A former back porch was totally made part of the house and serves as mudroom with sink, office and reading nook. Enter a bright kitchen open to the dining room with great cabinetry and up to date appliances. The spacious living room occupies the rest of the first floor, with a lovely stained glass window to the front porch and one by the staircase to the 2nd floor. Upstairs you will find a full bath with shower, and 3 comfortable bedrooms. The area behind the house boasts a blue stone patio for 3 season entertaining and a large enclosed garden area. Solar panels on the garage reduce the monthly electric cost to $30. A new furnace was installed in 2025. The driveway is paved and a manual-starter generator is on site and generates enough electricity for the whole house. Come and take a look!

Key facts

• Blue stone patio
• Enclosed garden area
• Paved driveway

Tags

• 1.77 ACRES
• MUDROOM WITH SINK
• BLUE STONE PATIO
• ENCLOSED GARDEN AREA
• SOLAR PANELS
• PAVED DRIVEWAY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $389k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-873 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $235k (39.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (48.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (48.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.6% vs local median 2.2% in Jeffersonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#909 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools D+, crime D-, amenities F.
• Sullivan West Central School District (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #436 of 590 in NY (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 28 active listings in the ZIP; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $41k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $39k appreciation (9.9% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$67k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($383k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $130k; list at $389k implies a 199% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $199,083 (48.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.51% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.61%
• DSCR: 0.57
• GRM: 16.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $462,250
• List price: $389,000
• Delta: -15.85%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

9.95% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $154,758
• Equity at exit: $348,943

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.58×
• Total profit: $498,817
• Equity at exit: $750,918

Cash invested: $108,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12748

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 28
• Price-to-rent: 16.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,991 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,040
• Tax from tax record: −$243 /mo · $2,919/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $-873

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,095

Max offer price $234,859

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,250
• Closing costs: $11,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 1037-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1037 chars)

   Welcome to this sweet farmhouse near Jeffersonville on 1.77 acres! A warm and cozy home in move-in condition is calling you! Enter through a side door after parking your car in the only 8-year old 2-car garage with 2 automatic openers. A former back porch was totally made part of the house and serves as mudroom with sink, office and reading nook. Enter a bright kitchen open to the dining room with great cabinetry and up to date appliances. The spacious living room occupies the rest of the first floor, with a lovely stained glass window to the front porch and one by the staircase to the 2nd floor. Upstairs you will find a full bath with shower, and 3 comfortable bedrooms. The area behind the house boasts a blue stone patio for 3 season entertaining and a large enclosed garden area. Solar panels on the garage reduce the monthly electric cost to $30. A new furnace was installed in 2025. The driveway is paved and a manual-starter generator is on site and generates enough electricity for the whole house. Come and take a look!

2. 2026-04-13
   listed $389,000 Active 1037-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1037 chars)

   Welcome to this sweet farmhouse near Jeffersonville on 1.77 acres! A warm and cozy home in move-in condition is calling you! Enter through a side door after parking your car in the only 8-year old 2-car garage with 2 automatic openers. A former back porch was totally made part of the house and serves as mudroom with sink, office and reading nook. Enter a bright kitchen open to the dining room with great cabinetry and up to date appliances. The spacious living room occupies the rest of the first floor, with a lovely stained glass window to the front porch and one by the staircase to the 2nd floor. Upstairs you will find a full bath with shower, and 3 comfortable bedrooms. The area behind the house boasts a blue stone patio for 3 season entertaining and a large enclosed garden area. Solar panels on the garage reduce the monthly electric cost to $30. A new furnace was installed in 2025. The driveway is paved and a manual-starter generator is on site and generates enough electricity for the whole house. Come and take a look!

3. 2007-04-04
   soldstatus $130,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,919 · $243/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,747 · $396/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,827/yr (+$152/mo · 62.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,890
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,790
• − Property taxes: −$2,919
• − Insurance: −$1,945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,911
• − Management: −$1,911
• − Depreciation: −$11,316
• Taxable loss: −$17,903
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,297
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,174/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sullivan West Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3600023
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $56,078
• Composite: 40.05/100
• National rank: #3817
• State rank: #436 of 590 in NY

Livability — Jeffersonville

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #909
• US rank: #17767

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,616

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6%
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% German/W. Germanic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.95%
• Current HPI: 363.0899
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+199.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Listed $389,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-04-04 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,919 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.