11511 Stony Point Dr

Papillion, NE 68046

$383,990F

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,219 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Pending · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,805/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,048
• Tax + insurance: −$651
• HOA: −$58
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$589
• Net cashflow: $-541/mo
• Annual: $-6,495/yr
• Cap rate: 4.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.94%
• DSCR: 0.74
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $109,352

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $384k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-541 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $370k (3.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $280k (27.0% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $280k (27.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#4 in NE, #482 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Papillion La Vista Community Schools (suburban): math 54% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #23 of 111 in NE (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Ashbury Elementary School (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C, #161 of 502 statewide, top 38%, 279 students, 7% FRL); Liberty Middle School (math 60% / reading 67%, grade B+, #13 of 128 statewide, top 10%, 499 students, 18% FRL); Papillion La Vista South Hs (math 59% / reading 61%, grade C+, #48 of 261 statewide, top 18%, 1,965 students, 20% FRL) — zoned schools at 15% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 624 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,612 units permitted in Sarpy County in 2024 (364 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sarpy County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $67k; list at $384k implies a 473% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 2.6% in Papillion — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.