11511 Stony Point Dr · Papillion, NE 68046

$383,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,219 sqft · SingleFamily · 4 Days on market

Built 2026 9,714 sqft lot $58/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to the Abbott in Belterra - a 4 bedroom, 3 bath ranch-style home offering 2,219 sq. ft. of beautifully finished living space, including a spacious finished basement and a 2 car garage. Enter through a welcoming foyer that leads past two generous bedrooms and a full bathroom, followed by a bright living room with large windows and a cozy electric fireplace. The open kitchen features a generous island, white cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, and a walk-in pantry—ideal for entertaining and everyday living. The private primary suite is tucked at the back with a double vanity and oversized walk-in closet. The finished basement adds a large rec room, fourth bedroom with wa

Key facts

• 9,714 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

🏗️ New construction. The $383,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $390,544.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $384k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-541 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $370k (3.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $280k (27.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $280k (27.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 2.6% in Papillion — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#4 in NE, #482 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Papillion La Vista Community Schools (suburban): math 54% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #23 of 111 in NE (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Ashbury Elementary School (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C, #161 of 502 statewide, top 38%, 279 students, 7% FRL); Liberty Middle School (math 60% / reading 67%, grade B+, #13 of 128 statewide, top 10%, 499 students, 18% FRL); Papillion La Vista South Hs (math 59% / reading 61%, grade C+, #48 of 261 statewide, top 18%, 1,965 students, 20% FRL) — zoned schools at 15% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 624 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,612 units permitted in Sarpy County in 2024 (364 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sarpy County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $67k; list at $384k implies a 473% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $280,473 (27.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.94%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $390,544
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11913 S 114th Ave	0.13mi	4/3.0	2,219 (0%)	1mo	$385,000	$174	93
11955 S 114th Ave	0.11mi	4/3.0	2,191 (-1%)	0mo	$400,990	$183	93
11861 S 114th Ave	0.16mi	4/3.0	2,219 (0%)	1mo	$364,990	$164	92
11854 S 114th Ave	0.16mi	4/3.0	2,219 (0%)	1mo	$374,990	$169	92
11456 White Pine Dr	0.10mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,483 (+12%)	1mo	$389,990	$157	68
11909 S 114th Ave	0.14mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,483 (+12%)	0mo	$391,990	$158	66
12210 S 113th St	0.34mi	4/3.0	2,541 (+14%)	2mo	$435,000	$171	59
11110 Portage Dr	0.38mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,489 (+12%)	2mo	$439,000	$176	56
10702 Portage Dr	0.72mi	4/3.0	2,409 (+9%)	1mo	$430,000	$178	51
11513 S 116 St	0.63mi	4/2.5	2,505 (+13%)	2mo	$531,640	$212	46
11611 S 110 Ave	0.70mi	4/2.5	2,512 (+13%)	1mo	$485,000	$193	42
10706 Portage Dr	0.70mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,986 (-10%)	2mo	$385,000	$194	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-101,794
• Equity at exit: $58,231

10-year hold

• IRR: -34.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.36×
• Total profit: $-149,105
• Equity at exit: $33,767

Cash invested: $109,352 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Nebraska: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 68046

• Home prices YoY: -34.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 624
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,805 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,048
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$488 /mo · $5,858/yr
• Insurance: −$163
• HOA: −$58
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$589
• Net cashflow: $-541

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,490

Max offer price $369,772

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $103	-5% $-7	+0% $-541	+5% $-676	+10% $-811
Rent	-10% $-763	-5% $-652	+0% $-541	+5% $-430	+10% $-320
Rate	-1.0pp $-345	-0.5pp $-442	base $-541	+0.5pp $-642	+1.0pp $-745

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,636
• Closing costs: $11,716
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12219 S 111th Ave Papillion, NE	4.0	4.0	2600	$3,100	$1.19	4d	1	0.41mi
11710 S 113th Ave Papillion, NE	3.0	2.5	1996	$2,800	$1.40	25d	1	0.43mi
12002 Edgewater Dr Papillion, NE	5.0	4.5	2500	$3,200	$1.28	45d	1	0.47mi
12354 Edgewater Dr Papillion, NE	4.0	3.0	2400	$3,000	$1.25	4d	1	0.56mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $58 · $696/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-02
   listed $383,990 New
3. 2026-03-23
   soldstatus $67,022

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NE · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $774 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,643 · $554/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,869/yr (+$489/mo · 757.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,657
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,877
• − Property taxes: −$5,858
• − Insurance: −$1,953
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,693
• − Management: −$2,693
• − HOA: −$696
• − Depreciation: −$11,361
• Taxable loss: −$13,473
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,234
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,261/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Papillion La Vista Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 3175270
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $72,684
• Composite: 49.92/100
• National rank: #1937
• State rank: #23 of 111 in NE

Livability — Papillion

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #482

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Sarpy County · 161,202 people
• City population: 35,085
• Metro: Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA
• Population (ZIP): 35,085
• Household income: $116,907
• Rent vs Own: 23.6% rent · 76.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 565.0

Population outlook (Sarpy County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 211,769 people
• By 2030: 229,365 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 264,122 · +24.7%
• By 2050: 298,087 · +40.8%
• By 2075: 381,667 · +80.2%
• By 2100: 448,180 · +111.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarpy

• 2024 margin: R (+11.7) · D 43.5% · R 55.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: -15.9pp · 2024: -11.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.7 2020: R+11.2 2016: R+21.8 2012: R+23.6 2008: R+15.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.80%
• Current HPI: 223.4436
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.52%
• Metro: Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.68%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NE)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Conglomerate	1	$371B

Price history

+472.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Pending — GPRMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $383,990 GPRMLS
• 2026-03-23 Sold (Public Records) $67,022 Public Records

Property tax history

+36.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $774 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.