3906 Tulipan St

Mission, TX 78573

$127,500D-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · Built 1991 · SingleFamily · Pending · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $977/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$669
• Tax + insurance: −$283
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$205
• Net cashflow: $-180/mo
• Annual: $-2,159/yr
• Cap rate: 4.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.05%
• DSCR: 0.73
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $35,700

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $128k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-180 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $96k (24.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $98k (23.4% below list).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $96k (24.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($882 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#148 in TX, #4,155 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• La Joya ISD (suburban): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #759 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Lloyd M Bentsen El (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 572 students, 86% FRL); Irene M Garcia Middle (math 17% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,428 of 1,662 statewide, top 87%, 641 students, 89% FRL); La Joya H S (math 16% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,333 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 2,775 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 89% FRL vs 54% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 625 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 94% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.5% in Mission — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.