3906 Tulipan St · Mission, TX 78573

$127,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1991 7,940 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks

MOVE-IN READY HOME IN MISSION, TX!! Welcome to 3906 Tulipan St, a beautifully maintained two-bedroom, one-bath home in a prime Mission location! This stunning property is in a great location and PRICED TO SELL!! DON'T MISS THIS AMAZING OPPORTUNITY!!

Key facts

• 7,940 sq ft lot
• Built 1991
• Listed 8 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $128k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-180 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $96k (24.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $98k (23.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $96k (24.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.5% in Mission — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#148 in TX, #4,155 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• La Joya ISD (suburban): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #759 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Lloyd M Bentsen El (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 572 students, 86% FRL); Irene M Garcia Middle (math 17% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,428 of 1,662 statewide, top 87%, 641 students, 89% FRL); La Joya H S (math 16% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,333 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 2,775 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 89% FRL vs 54% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 625 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($882 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 94% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $95,711 (24.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.05%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $57,499
• Equity at exit: $114,862

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.97×
• Total profit: $177,387
• Equity at exit: $247,704

Cash invested: $35,700 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78573

• Home prices YoY: 8.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 625
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $977 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$669
• Tax from tax record: −$230 /mo · $2,762/yr
• Insurance: −$53
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$205
• Net cashflow: $-180

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,205

Max offer price $95,711

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-108	-5% $-144	+0% $-180	+5% $-216	+10% $-252
Rent	-10% $-257	-5% $-219	+0% $-180	+5% $-141	+10% $-103
Rate	-1.0pp $-116	-0.5pp $-148	base $-180	+0.5pp $-213	+1.0pp $-247

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,875
• Closing costs: $3,825
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3809 N Inspiration Rd Apt 4 Mission, TX	2.0	1.0	849	$695	$0.82	45d	1	0.10mi
2010 Graham Ave Mission, TX	1.0	1.0	750	$685	$0.91	25d	1	0.52mi
1804 Ramirez St Unit 1 Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1020	$1,250	$1.23	25d	1	0.54mi
1805 Ramirez St Unit 4 Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1020	$1,095	$1.07	45d	1	0.55mi
2305 W Mile 3 Rd Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	980	$970	$0.99	45d	1	0.59mi
3201 Magdalena St Unit 1 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	775	$1,000	$1.29	25d	1	0.60mi
3201 Magdalena St #2 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	775	$1,000	$1.29	45d	1	0.60mi
3201 Magdalena St #7 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	770	$950	$1.23	25d	1	0.60mi
3206 N Moorefield Rd Mission, TX	2.0	1.5	1042	$895	$0.86	25d	4	0.60mi
1809 Ramirez St Unit 2 Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1033	$1,300	$1.26	45d	1	0.71mi
2905 Estevan St #4 Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1044	$1,300	$1.25	45d	1	1.01mi
2905 Estevan St #3 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	1044	$1,300	$1.25	25d	1	1.01mi
2903 Estevan St #4 Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,399	$1.32	20d	1	1.01mi
2903 Estevan St #3 Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1044	$1,400	$1.34	15d	1	1.01mi
712 Palmer Rd Unit 1 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	960	$1,100	$1.15	15d	1	1.14mi
707 Palmer Rd Unit 3 Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	960	$1,350	$1.41	15d	1	1.19mi
707 Palmer Rd Unit 1 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	760	$1,200	$1.58	15d	1	1.19mi
707 Palmer Rd Unit 2 Mission, TX	1.0	1.0	960	$900	$0.94	15d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2025-06-23
   soldstatus
2. 2025-06-23
   soldstatus
3. 2025-03-27
   status Pending
4. 2025-03-19
   listed $127,500 Active
5. 1992-10-20
   soldstatus
6. 1991-04-10
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,762 · $230/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,762 · $230/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 94% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,726
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,142
• − Property taxes: −$2,762
• − Insurance: −$638
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$938
• − Management: −$938
• − Depreciation: −$3,709
• Taxable loss: −$4,401
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,056
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,103/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: La Joya ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826130
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $27,845
• Composite: 18.65/100
• National rank: #8891
• State rank: #759 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mission

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #148
• US rank: #4155

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mission, TX
• County: Hidalgo County · 623,128 people
• City population: 78,024
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,809
• Household income: $55,000
• Rent vs Own: 34.0% rent · 66.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 855.0

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 96% Two or more races 63% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 94%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada
• Languages at home: 12% English-only · Spanish 88%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.95%
• Current HPI: 242.0711
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.45%
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-06-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-06-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-03-27 Pending — MCALLENMLS
• 2025-03-19 Listed $127,500 MCALLENMLS
• 1992-10-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1991-04-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,762 · +8.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.