Moonhaven Plan

Wilmington, OH 45177

$306,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 424 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,995/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax + insurance: −$525
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,049
• Net cashflow: $1,768/mo
• Annual: $21,221/yr
• Cap rate: 13.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.05%
• DSCR: 2.07
• 1% rule: 1.59%
• Cash to close: $88,228

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $306k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($21k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $306k).
• It's been on market 424 days — a 12% lower offer ($269k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $269k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#202 in OH, #3,127 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, commute F, employment F.
• Wilmington City (town): math 42% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #492 of 656 in OH (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Roy E Holmes Elementary School (508 students, 58% FRL); Rodger O. Borror Middle School (math 35% / reading 44%, grade F, #519 of 654 statewide, top 80%, 502 students, 48% FRL); Wilmington High School (math 24% / reading 62%, grade F, #494 of 781 statewide, top 63%, 663 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 51% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 145 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 119 units permitted in Clinton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Clinton County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $88k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 13.0% vs local median 5.3% in Wilmington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,995/mo this rent would consume 85% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 424 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.