Moonhaven Plan · Wilmington, OH 45177

$288,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily · 285 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.4/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Moonhaven offers approximately 1,500 square feet of well-designed living space in a popular single-story layout, ideal for buyers searching for new ranch-style homes in Carlisle, Wilmington, or Trenton, OH. With 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 9-foot ceilings, this home delivers comfort and style in a functional layout. The open kitchen features an island and 42-inch wall cabinets and flows into a spacious great room with ample wall space, perfect for buyers who love open-concept new homes near Dayton or Cincinnati. The grand bedroom includes a private bath with a tub-shower unit, vanity, and a large walk-in closet. A hall linen closet, two-car garage, and optional slab or basement foundation add convenience and flexibility depending on the community. The Moonhaven blends thoughtful design with modern amenities, making it a standout choice among new single-story homes for sale in Southwest Ohio.

Key facts

• Spacious great room
• Grand bedroom
• Included island

Tags

• FIRST FLOOR CEILING HEIGHT
• OPEN KITCHEN
• 42 INCH TALL WALL CABINETS
• INCLUDED ISLAND
• SPACIOUS GREAT ROOM
• GRAND BEDROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $288,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $310,892.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $288k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $288k).
• Recommended offer: $253k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 6.3% in Wilmington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#202 in OH, #3,127 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, commute F, employment F.
• Wilmington City (town): math 42% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #492 of 656 in OH (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Roy E Holmes Elementary School (508 students, 58% FRL); Rodger O. Borror Middle School (math 35% / reading 44%, grade F, #519 of 654 statewide, top 80%, 502 students, 48% FRL); Wilmington High School (math 24% / reading 62%, grade F, #494 of 781 statewide, top 63%, 663 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 51% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 107 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 119 units permitted in Clinton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,118/mo this rent would consume 70% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clinton County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $87k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 285 days — a 12% lower offer ($253k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $253,440 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 285 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.23%
• DSCR: 1.68
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $310,892
• List price: $288,000
• Delta: -7.36%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1181 Blue Spruce Ln	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,500 (0%)	1mo	$304,000	$203	95
1206 Timber Glen Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,468 (-2%)	2mo	$292,500	$199	92
1268 Timber Glen Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,495 (-0%)	7mo	$299,900	$201	92
1244 Timber Glen Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,416 (-6%)	18mo	$269,900	$191	74
365 Maple Ridge Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,528 (+2%)	22mo	$225,000	$147	61
320 Maple Ridge Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,324 (-12%)	10mo	$235,000	$177	53
434 Randolph St	0.64mi	3/3.0	1,472 (-2%)	15mo	$227,500	$155	51
551 Randolph St	0.62mi	3/2.5	1,314 (-12%)	2mo	$225,000	$171	47
1147 Southridge Ave	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (-4%)	21mo	$189,900	$132	45
97 Glenwood Cir	0.55mi	3/1.5	1,596 (+6%)	22mo	$250,000	$157	43
950 Southridge Ave	0.69mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,350 (-10%)	8mo	$219,900	$163	35
719 Bernice St	0.75mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,440 (-4%)	22mo	$120,000	$83	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $20,038
• Equity at exit: $46,355

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.24×
• Total profit: $108,292
• Equity at exit: $26,880

Cash invested: $87,050 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45177

• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,118 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,630
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$389 /mo · $4,663/yr
• Insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$865
• Net cashflow: $1,105

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,720

Max offer price $310,892

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,319	-5% $1,212	+0% $1,105	+5% $997	+10% $890
Rent	-10% $779	-5% $942	+0% $1,105	+5% $1,267	+10% $1,430
Rate	-1.0pp $1,261	-0.5pp $1,184	base $1,105	+0.5pp $1,024	+1.0pp $942

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,723
• Closing costs: $9,327
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
109 Southwind Blvd Wilmington, OH	3.0	2.0	1344	$4,995	$3.72	5d	1	0.71mi
121 Southwind Blvd Wilmington, OH	3.0	2.0	1344	$4,995	$3.72	5d	1	0.72mi
229 Taylor Dr Wilmington, OH	3.0	2.0	1242	$2,000	$1.61	13d	1	0.80mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-23
   days on market $288,000 Active 285 DOM
2. 2026-06-22
   days on market $288,000 Active 284 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $288,000 Active 281 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $288,000 Active 280 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $288,000 Active 279 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $288,000 Active 278 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $288,000 Active 276 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $288,000 Active 273 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $288,000 Active 272 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $288,000 Active 271 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $288,000 Active 270 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $288,000 Active 267 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $288,000 Active 266 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $288,000 Active 265 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $288,000 Active 264 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $288,000 Active 263 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $288,000 Active 262 DOM
18. 2026-05-06
    price $288,000 909-char remark

    Show marketing remark (909 chars)

    The Moonhaven offers approximately 1,500 square feet of well-designed living space in a popular single-story layout, ideal for buyers searching for new ranch-style homes in Carlisle, Wilmington, or Trenton, OH. With 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 9-foot ceilings, this home delivers comfort and style in a functional layout. The open kitchen features an island and 42-inch wall cabinets and flows into a spacious great room with ample wall space, perfect for buyers who love open-concept new homes near Dayton or Cincinnati. The grand bedroom includes a private bath with a tub-shower unit, vanity, and a large walk-in closet. A hall linen closet, two-car garage, and optional slab or basement foundation add convenience and flexibility depending on the community. The Moonhaven blends thoughtful design with modern amenities, making it a standout choice among new single-story homes for sale in Southwest Ohio.

19. 2026-02-24
    price $287,800 909-char remark

    Show marketing remark (909 chars)

    The Moonhaven offers approximately 1,500 square feet of well-designed living space in a popular single-story layout, ideal for buyers searching for new ranch-style homes in Carlisle, Wilmington, or Trenton, OH. With 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 9-foot ceilings, this home delivers comfort and style in a functional layout. The open kitchen features an island and 42-inch wall cabinets and flows into a spacious great room with ample wall space, perfect for buyers who love open-concept new homes near Dayton or Cincinnati. The grand bedroom includes a private bath with a tub-shower unit, vanity, and a large walk-in closet. A hall linen closet, two-car garage, and optional slab or basement foundation add convenience and flexibility depending on the community. The Moonhaven blends thoughtful design with modern amenities, making it a standout choice among new single-story homes for sale in Southwest Ohio.

20. 2025-09-10
    listed $282,100 Active 909-char remark

    Show marketing remark (909 chars)

    The Moonhaven offers approximately 1,500 square feet of well-designed living space in a popular single-story layout, ideal for buyers searching for new ranch-style homes in Carlisle, Wilmington, or Trenton, OH. With 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 9-foot ceilings, this home delivers comfort and style in a functional layout. The open kitchen features an island and 42-inch wall cabinets and flows into a spacious great room with ample wall space, perfect for buyers who love open-concept new homes near Dayton or Cincinnati. The grand bedroom includes a private bath with a tub-shower unit, vanity, and a large walk-in closet. A hall linen closet, two-car garage, and optional slab or basement foundation add convenience and flexibility depending on the community. The Moonhaven blends thoughtful design with modern amenities, making it a standout choice among new single-story homes for sale in Southwest Ohio.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $49,414
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,415
• − Property taxes: −$4,663
• − Insurance: −$1,554
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,953
• − Management: −$3,953
• − Depreciation: −$9,044
• Taxable income: $8,831
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,120
• After-tax cash flow: $11,136/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-story home in Wilmington, OH, is in good condition with a modern kitchen and bathrooms, and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for value-add improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more buyers.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient.
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Upgrading to more modern or energy-efficient appliances can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers.
• Rental Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can help reduce energy costs and attract renters who value energy efficiency.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more buyers. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Upgrading to more modern or energy-efficient appliances can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Rental Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can help reduce energy costs and attract renters who value energy efficiency. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wilmington City
• NCES district ID: 3904511
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $43,201
• Composite: 39.2/100
• National rank: #4020
• State rank: #492 of 656 in OH

Livability — Wilmington

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #202
• US rank: #3127

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wilmington, OH
• County: Clinton · 46,911 people
• Population (ZIP): 22,442
• Household income: $70,483
• Rent vs Own: 30.6% rent · 69.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 9.5

Population outlook (Clinton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 41,352 people
• By 2030: 40,831 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 39,049 · -5.6%
• By 2050: 36,408 · -12.0%
• By 2075: 29,652 · -28.3%
• By 2100: 20,736 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 3% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clinton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.6) · D 22.3% · R 76.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.3pp toward R · 2008: -30.3pp · 2024: -54.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.6 2020: R+52.6 2016: R+52.6 2012: R+35.2 2008: R+30.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -150.35%
• Current HPI: 238.9182
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+2.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $288,000 Zillow
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $287,800 Zillow
• 2025-09-10 Listed $282,100 Zillow