Moonhaven Plan · Wilmington, OH 45177

$312,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily · 378 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.9/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Moonhaven offers approximately 1,500 square feet of well-designed living space in a popular single-story layout, ideal for buyers searching for new ranch-style homes in Carlisle, Wilmington, or Trenton, OH. With 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 9-foot ceilings, this home delivers comfort and style in a functional layout. The open kitchen features an island and 42-inch wall cabinets and flows into a spacious great room with ample wall space, perfect for buyers who love open-concept new homes near Dayton or Cincinnati. The grand bedroom includes a private bath with a tub-shower unit, vanity, and a large walk-in closet. A hall linen closet, two-car garage, and optional slab or basement foundation add convenience and flexibility depending on the community. The Moonhaven blends thoughtful design with modern amenities, making it a standout choice among new single-story homes for sale in Southwest Ohio.

Key facts

• Spacious great room
• Grand bedroom
• Included island

Tags

• FIRST FLOOR CEILING HEIGHT
• OPEN KITCHEN
• 42 INCH TALL WALL CABINETS
• INCLUDED ISLAND
• SPACIOUS GREAT ROOM
• GRAND BEDROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $312,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $315,840.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $312k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $312k).
• Recommended offer: $275k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 5.3% in Wilmington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#202 in OH, #3,127 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, commute F, employment F.
• Wilmington City (town): math 42% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #492 of 656 in OH (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Roy E Holmes Elementary School (508 students, 58% FRL); Rodger O. Borror Middle School (math 35% / reading 44%, grade F, #519 of 654 statewide, top 80%, 502 students, 48% FRL); Wilmington High School (math 24% / reading 62%, grade F, #494 of 781 statewide, top 63%, 663 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 51% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 142 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 119 units permitted in Clinton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,118/mo this rent would consume 70% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clinton County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $88k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 378 days — a 12% lower offer ($275k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $274,560 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 378 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.52%
• DSCR: 1.65
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $315,840
• List price: $312,000
• Delta: -1.22%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1181 Blue Spruce Ln	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,500 (0%)	4mo	$304,000	$203	92
1206 Timber Glen Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,468 (-2%)	5mo	$292,500	$199	90
1268 Timber Glen Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,495 (-0%)	10mo	$299,900	$201	89
1314 Timber Glen Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,407 (-6%)	1mo	$295,000	$210	86
1244 Timber Glen Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,416 (-6%)	22mo	$269,900	$191	71
1321 Ridge Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,470 (-2%)	2mo	$285,000	$194	68
932 Willow Bend Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,660 (+11%)	15mo	$285,000	$172	60
320 Maple Ridge Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,324 (-12%)	13mo	$235,000	$177	50
434 Randolph St	0.64mi	3/3.0	1,472 (-2%)	18mo	$227,500	$155	48
551 Randolph St	0.62mi	3/2.5	1,314 (-12%)	5mo	$225,000	$171	44
1268 Southridge Ave	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,288 (-14%)	17mo	$240,000	$186	37
950 Southridge Ave	0.69mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,350 (-10%)	11mo	$219,900	$163	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $17,058
• Equity at exit: $47,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.16×
• Total profit: $102,893
• Equity at exit: $27,308

Cash invested: $88,435 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 10 active · 14 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.5 mo (13%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $336,000 ($197/sqft)
• Median days on market: 260 d
• This list price: 30% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +6.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 45177

• Active inventory: 142
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,118 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,656
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$395 /mo · $4,738/yr
• Insurance: −$132
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$865
• Net cashflow: $1,070

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,763

Max offer price $315,840

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,289	-5% $1,180	+0% $1,070	+5% $961	+10% $852
Rent	-10% $745	-5% $908	+0% $1,070	+5% $1,233	+10% $1,396
Rate	-1.0pp $1,229	-0.5pp $1,151	base $1,070	+0.5pp $989	+1.0pp $905

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,960
• Closing costs: $9,475
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
109 Southwind Blvd Wilmington, OH	3.0	2.0	1344	$4,995	$3.72	0d	1	0.71mi
121 Southwind Blvd Wilmington, OH	3.0	2.0	1344	$4,995	$3.72	0d	1	0.72mi
229 Taylor Dr Wilmington, OH	3.0	2.0	1242	$2,000	$1.61	77d	1	0.80mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $312,000 Active 378 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $312,000 Active 377 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $312,000 Active 376 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $312,000 Active 375 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $312,000 Active 374 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $312,000 Active 373 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $312,000 Active 372 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $312,000 Active 371 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $312,000 Active 370 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $312,000 Active 369 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $312,000 Active 368 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $312,000 Active 367 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $312,000 Active 366 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $312,000 Active 360 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $312,000 Active 359 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $312,000 Active 358 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $312,000 Active 355 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $312,000 Active 354 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $312,000 Active 353 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $312,000 Active 352 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $312,000 Active 351 DOM
22. 2026-08-26
    days on market $312,000 Active 350 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $312,000 Active 349 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $312,000 Active 348 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $312,000 Active 347 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $312,000 Active 346 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $312,000 Active 345 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $312,000 Active 344 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $312,000 Active 343 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $312,000 Active 342 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $312,000 Active 341 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $312,000 Active 340 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $312,000 Active 339 DOM
34. 2026-08-15
    days on market $312,000 Active 338 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    price $312,000 Active 337 DOM
36. 2026-08-13
    days on market $295,000 Active 337 DOM
37. 2026-08-12
    days on market $295,000 Active 336 DOM
38. 2026-08-11
    days on market $295,000 Active 335 DOM
39. 2026-08-10
    days on market $295,000 Active 334 DOM
40. 2026-08-09
    days on market $295,000 Active 333 DOM
41. 2026-08-08
    days on market $295,000 Active 332 DOM
42. 2026-08-07
    days on market $295,000 Active 331 DOM
43. 2026-08-06
    days on market $295,000 Active 330 DOM
44. 2026-08-05
    days on market $295,000 Active 329 DOM
45. 2026-08-04
    days on market $295,000 Active 328 DOM
46. 2026-08-03
    days on market $295,000 Active 327 DOM
47. 2026-07-31
    pricedays on market $295,000 Active 324 DOM
48. 2026-07-30
    days on market $289,000 Active 323 DOM
49. 2026-07-30
    days on market $289,000 Active 322 DOM
50. 2026-07-28
    days on market $289,000 Active 321 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $49,414
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,692
• − Property taxes: −$4,738
• − Insurance: −$1,579
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,953
• − Management: −$3,953
• − Depreciation: −$9,188
• Taxable income: $8,311
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,995
• After-tax cash flow: $10,850/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-story home in Wilmington, OH, is in good condition with a modern kitchen and bathrooms, and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for value-add improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more buyers. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Upgrading to more modern or energy-efficient appliances can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Rental Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can help reduce energy costs and attract renters who value energy efficiency. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 41/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Roy E Holmes Elementary School Middle Rodger O. Borror Middle School F OH #519/654 Nat'l #6,151/14,009 High Wilmington High School F OH #494/781 Nat'l #7,439/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wilmington City
• NCES district ID: 3904511
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $43,201
• Composite: 39.2/100
• National rank: #4020
• State rank: #492 of 656 in OH

B Composite livability gradescore 77/100

Livability — Wilmington

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #202
• US rank: #3127

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wilmington, OH
• County: Clinton · 41,352 people
• Population (ZIP): 22,442
• Household income: $70,483
• Rent vs Own: 30.6% rent · 69.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Clinton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 41,352 people
• By 2030: 40,831 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 39,049 · -5.6%
• By 2050: 36,408 · -12.0%
• By 2075: 29,652 · -28.3%
• By 2100: 20,736 · -49.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 3% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Clinton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.6) · D 22.3% · R 76.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.3pp toward R · 2008: -30.3pp · 2024: -54.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.6 2020: R+52.6 2016: R+52.6 2012: R+35.2 2008: R+30.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -150.35%
• Current HPI: 238.9182
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+2.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $288,000 Zillow
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $287,800 Zillow
• 2025-09-10 Listed $282,100 Zillow