2823 N Grey Squirrel Dr

Fayetteville, AR 72704

$524,000F

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,670 sqft · Built 2025 · Land · Pending · 370 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,438/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,748
• Tax + insurance: −$873
• HOA: −$50
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$512
• Net cashflow: $-1,745/mo
• Annual: $-20,946/yr
• Cap rate: 2.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.28%
• DSCR: 0.36
• 1% rule: 0.47%
• Cash to close: $146,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $524k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-21k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (48.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $244k (53.5% below list).
• It's been on market 370 days — a 12% lower offer ($461k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $244k (53.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#3 in AR, #871 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime D-.
• Fayetteville School District (urban): math 50% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #19 of 238 in AR (top 8%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Holcomb Elementary School (math 65% / reading 52%, grade B-, #45 of 454 statewide, top 10%, 643 students, 31% FRL); Ramay Junior High School (math 39% / reading 39%, grade F, #102 of 201 statewide, top 52%, 645 students, 54% FRL); Fayetteville High School East (math 41% / reading 50%, grade D-, #24 of 292 statewide, top 9%, 2,685 students, 27% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 550 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,494 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (1,497 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Washington County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 2.3% vs local median 3.5% in Fayetteville — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($96k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 370 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 53% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?