1634 Williams Grove Rd

Carroll, PA 17055

$168,000B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,256 sqft · Built 1900 · Townhouse · Active · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,098/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$881
• Tax + insurance: −$165
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $612/mo
• Annual: $7,338/yr
• Cap rate: 10.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.60%
• DSCR: 1.69
• 1% rule: 1.25%
• Cash to close: $47,040

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $168k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $612 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $168k).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $165k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Northern York County SD (rural): math 35% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #223 of 539 in PA (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: South Mountain El Sch (math 42% / reading 63%, grade C-, #578 of 1,518 statewide, top 38%, 407 students, 25% FRL); Northern Ms (math 23% / reading 52%, grade F, #292 of 512 statewide, top 58%, 751 students, 26% FRL); Northern Hs (math 56%, 1,051 students, 21% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 291 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,328 units permitted in York County in 2024 (338 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 7 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $168k implies a 158% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.