1634 Williams Grove Rd · Carroll, PA 17055

$168,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,256 sqft · Townhouse public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1900 3,920 sqft lot $134/sqft · 155% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.7/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

CASH ONLY, Needs Holding Tank Cumberland Valley Schools, Monroe Township, 3 bedrooms, fenced yard, 2 car garage with automatic garage door opener. LOW yearly taxes of only $1,026, less than $86 a month. AND you get one of the greatest school districts at a bargain price. Existing well and septic do not meet DEP isolation distance. NO FHA, VA, or BANK financing.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 1900
• Listed 17 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (2 spaces); Alley access; Garage door opener
• Utilities: Well water; On-site septic; Electric hot water; Electric heating; Electric cooling
• Home design: Semi-detached; Single entry level (multi-story layout implied)
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Concrete perimeter foundation; Built year per assessor
• Exterior features: Not in a federal flood zone; Above grade and below grade structures

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the upper level
• Flooring: Wood floors; Carpet
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the upper level; One half bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Radiant heat (electric); Ceiling fan cooling (electric)
• Interior features: Carpet; Ceiling fans; Dining area; Wood floors; Unfinished basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $168k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $612 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $168k).
• Recommended offer: $165k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Northern York County SD (rural): math 35% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #223 of 539 in PA (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: South Mountain El Sch (math 42% / reading 63%, grade C-, #578 of 1,518 statewide, top 38%, 407 students, 25% FRL); Northern Ms (math 23% / reading 52%, grade F, #292 of 512 statewide, top 58%, 751 students, 26% FRL); Northern Hs (math 56%, 1,051 students, 21% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 291 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,328 units permitted in York County in 2024 (338 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $168k implies a 158% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $165,480 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.60%
• DSCR: 1.69
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $65,898
• List price: $168,000
• Delta: 154.94%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1634 Williams Grove Rd	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,256 (0%)	9mo	$65,000	$52	93

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.89% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $9,367
• Equity at exit: $25,049

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.04×
• Total profit: $48,848
• Equity at exit: $14,526

Cash invested: $47,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17055

• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 291
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,098 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$881
• Tax from tax record: −$95 /mo · $1,140/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $612

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,324

Max offer price $168,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $707	-5% $659	+0% $612	+5% $564	+10% $516
Rent	-10% $446	-5% $529	+0% $612	+5% $694	+10% $777
Rate	-1.0pp $696	-0.5pp $654	base $612	+0.5pp $568	+1.0pp $524

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,000
• Closing costs: $5,040
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15 Ore Bank Rd Unit Kane Dillsburg, PA	3.0	2.0	1379	$2,125	$1.54	16d	1	1.25mi
15 Ore Bank Rd Dillsburg, PA	2.0	2.0	1036	$1,745	$1.68	16d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $168,000 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $168,000 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-05-14
   listed $168,000 Active 997-char remark
4. 2026-05-11
   historical $168,000 997-char remark
5. 2025-09-29
   soldstatus $65,000
6. 2025-09-24
   soldstatus $65,000 Closed 364-char remark

   Show marketing remark (364 chars)

   CASH ONLY, Needs Holding Tank Cumberland Valley Schools, Monroe Township, 3 bedrooms, fenced yard, 2 car garage with automatic garage door opener. LOW yearly taxes of only $1,026, less than $86 a month. AND you get one of the greatest school districts at a bargain price. Existing well and septic do not meet DEP isolation distance. NO FHA, VA, or BANK financing.

7. 2025-09-09
   status Pending 364-char remark

   Show marketing remark (364 chars)

   CASH ONLY, Needs Holding Tank Cumberland Valley Schools, Monroe Township, 3 bedrooms, fenced yard, 2 car garage with automatic garage door opener. LOW yearly taxes of only $1,026, less than $86 a month. AND you get one of the greatest school districts at a bargain price. Existing well and septic do not meet DEP isolation distance. NO FHA, VA, or BANK financing.

8. 2025-09-04
   listed $69,900 Active 364-char remark

   Show marketing remark (364 chars)

   CASH ONLY, Needs Holding Tank Cumberland Valley Schools, Monroe Township, 3 bedrooms, fenced yard, 2 car garage with automatic garage door opener. LOW yearly taxes of only $1,026, less than $86 a month. AND you get one of the greatest school districts at a bargain price. Existing well and septic do not meet DEP isolation distance. NO FHA, VA, or BANK financing.

9. 2025-09-04
   historical

   Show marketing remark (364 chars)

   CASH ONLY, Needs Holding Tank Cumberland Valley Schools, Monroe Township, 3 bedrooms, fenced yard, 2 car garage with automatic garage door opener. LOW yearly taxes of only $1,026, less than $86 a month. AND you get one of the greatest school districts at a bargain price. Existing well and septic do not meet DEP isolation distance. NO FHA, VA, or BANK financing.

10. 2025-07-16
    price $99,900
11. 2025-07-16
    status Active
12. 2025-06-13
    status Pending
13. 2025-05-16
    listed $129,900 Active
14. 2025-05-09
    historical
15. 2024-12-05
    historical
16. 2024-11-08
    price $154,900
17. 2024-09-23
    price $157,500
18. 2024-09-22
    status Active
19. 2024-09-08
    historical Active Under Contract
20. 2024-08-22
    listed $159,900 Active
21. 2024-08-15
    historical
22. 2020-05-12
    historical
23. 2012-01-26
    listed $84,900
24. 2007-05-22
    soldstatus $87,900
25. 1988-12-01
    soldstatus $44,000
26. 1984-02-09
    soldstatus $17,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,140 · $95/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,897 · $158/mo
• Expected delta: +$757/yr (+$63/mo · 66.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,178
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,411
• − Property taxes: −$1,140
• − Insurance: −$840
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,014
• − Management: −$2,014
• − Depreciation: −$4,887
• Taxable income: $4,871
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,169
• After-tax cash flow: $6,169/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northern York County SD
• NCES district ID: 4217760
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $65,255
• Composite: 40.84/100
• National rank: #3629
• State rank: #223 of 539 in PA

Livability — Carroll

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Cumberland County · 257,673 people
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• Population (ZIP): 42,006
• Household income: $99,077
• Rent vs Own: 29.2% rent · 70.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 888.0

Population outlook (York County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 454,205 people
• By 2030: 457,407 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 457,529 · +0.7%
• By 2050: 448,261 · -1.3%
• By 2075: 427,388 · -5.9%
• By 2100: 384,218 · -15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 3% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · York

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.3) · D 36.9% · R 62.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.7pp toward R · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -25.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.3 2020: R+24.6 2016: R+29.3 2012: R+21.2 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -202.92%
• Current HPI: 254.7596
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.89%
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+888.2% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-31 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $168,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-11 Coming Soon — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-29 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2025-09-24 Sold (MLS) $65,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-09 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-04 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-04 Listed $69,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-07-16 Price Changed $99,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-07-16 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-06-13 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-05-16 Listed $129,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-05-09 Coming Soon — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-12-05 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-11-08 Price Changed $154,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-09-23 Price Changed $157,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-09-22 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-09-08 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-08-22 Listed $159,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-08-15 Coming Soon — BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-05-12 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2012-01-26 Listed $84,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2007-05-22 Sold (Public Records) $87,900 Public Records
• 1988-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $44,000 Public Records
• 1984-02-09 Sold (Public Records) $17,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,140 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.