6 bd · None ba ·
1,596 sqft ·
Built 1887
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 66 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,654/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,363
Tax + insurance
−$392
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$557
Net cashflow
$341/mo
Annual
$4,094/yr
Cap rate
7.87%
Cash-on-cash
5.62%
DSCR
1.25
1% rule
1.02%
Cash to close
$72,800
Investor read
This is a 6-bed/?-bath single-family listed at $260k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $341 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $260k).
It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($244k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $244k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $10k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 76/100 on livability (#133 in NJ, #3,533 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
Trenton Public School District (urban): math 2% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #471 of 472 in NJ (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: built in 1887 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,256 units permitted in Mercer County in 2024 (1,303 in 5+ unit buildings).
Mercer County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
11 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $70k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $89k; list at $260k implies a 192% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $73k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 6.3% in Trenton — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1887 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29