1944 El Sereno Ave

Pasadena, CA 91103

$1,077,700D+

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,518 sqft · Built 1911 · SingleFamily · Active · 37 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $7,447/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,652
• Tax + insurance: −$711
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,564
• Net cashflow: $-479/mo
• Annual: $-5,753/yr
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.91%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $301,756

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.08M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-479 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $993k (7.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $745k (30.9% below list).
• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.05M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $745k (30.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $32k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#181 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety D+, crime F, cost of living F.
• Pasadena Unified (urban): math 42% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #123 of 517 in CA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Jackson Elementary (628 students, 63% FRL); Octavia E. Butler Magnet (513 students, 89% FRL); John Muir High (math 24% / reading 75%, grade D+, #332 of 1,170 statewide, top 30%, 1,012 students, 85% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 55% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1911 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 37 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 11 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $162k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $128k; list at $1.08M implies a 742% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 1.5% in Pasadena — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $7,447/mo this rent would consume 95% of the median local household income ($94k/yr) (locally 1402% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1911 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.