2009 Dawson Ave

Lipscomb, AL 35020

$32,500B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Pending · 88 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,055/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$170
• Tax + insurance: −$53
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$222
• Net cashflow: $610/mo
• Annual: $7,317/yr
• Cap rate: 28.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 80.41%
• DSCR: 4.58
• 1% rule: 3.25%
• Cash to close: $9,100

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $32k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $610 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $32k).
• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($31k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $31k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $225 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $975 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#76 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, employment F, health & safety F.
• Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Lipscomb Elementary School (math 8% / reading 27%, grade F, #486 of 627 statewide, top 79%, 259 students, 96% FRL); Mcadory Middle School (math 2% / reading 33%, grade F, #199 of 257 statewide, top 77%, 854 students, 74% FRL); Mcadory High School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #237 of 305 statewide, top 78%, 1,162 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 49% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.1%/yr); 116 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $19k; list at $32k implies a 75% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $9k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($35k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.