2221-2223 San Pablo Ave

Berkeley, CA 94702

$829,000D

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,244 sqft · Built 1920 · MultiFamily · Active · 92 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,924/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,347
• Tax + insurance: −$1,382
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,244
• Net cashflow: $-1,049/mo
• Annual: $-12,589/yr
• Cap rate: 4.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.42%
• DSCR: 0.76
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $232,120

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 1-bed/1-bath units multifamily listed at $829k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-525/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $677k (18.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $592k (28.5% below list).
• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($754k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $592k (28.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $25k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#74 in CA, #2,860 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Berkeley Unified (urban): math 61% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #175 of 1,400 in CA (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Malcolm X Elementary (459 students, 29% FRL); Martin Luther King Middle (871 students, 20% FRL); Berkeley High (math 74% / reading 98%, grade A, #25 of 1,170 statewide, top 2%, 3,204 students, 23% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 86% at this address vs 64% district-wide (+22 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Berkeley Unified average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 43 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.0% in Berkeley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,924/mo this rent would consume 71% of the median local household income ($100k/yr) (locally 1183% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: exterior paint — There is some discoloration and wear visible on the exterior walls.
• Minor: landscaping — There is some minor wear and tear visible in the landscaping.