2221-2223 San Pablo Ave · Berkeley, CA 94702

$829,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,244 sqft · MultiFamily · 92 Days on market

Built 1920 Fair condition 5,250 sqft lot $369/sqft · 36% below area Est $1303k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

2223 San Pablo Avenue is an Add Value owner‑user opportunity offering a street‑front retail space and a residential unit in Berkeley's Poets Corner. The flexible mixed‑use layout allows a buyer to occupy, customize, or re‑tenant immediately. The property features clear value‑add potential, with deferred maintenance providing room for upgrades, modernization, and long‑term repositioning. Located along the active San Pablo Avenue corridor minutes to Downtown, BART, and Fourth Street this site delivers strong visibility, steady traffic, and long‑term upside in a supply‑constrained market.

Key facts

• Mixed use layout
• Value add potential
• Strong visibility

Tags

• STREET FRONT RETAIL SPACE
• RESIDENTIAL UNIT
• MIXED USE LAYOUT
• VALUE ADD POTENTIAL
• STRONG VISIBILITY
• STEADY TRAFFIC

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $829,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$1,302,578) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 1-bed/1-bath units multifamily listed at $829k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-525/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $677k (18.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $592k (28.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $592k (28.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.0% in Berkeley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#74 in CA, #2,860 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Berkeley Unified (urban): math 61% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #175 of 1,400 in CA (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Malcolm X Elementary (459 students, 29% FRL); Martin Luther King Middle (871 students, 20% FRL); Berkeley High (math 74% / reading 98%, grade A, #25 of 1,170 statewide, top 2%, 3,204 students, 23% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 86% at this address vs 64% district-wide (+22 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Berkeley Unified average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 43 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,924/mo this rent would consume 71% of the median local household income ($100k/yr) (locally 1183% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $25k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($754k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $592,400 (28.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
4. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
5. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
6. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
7. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
8. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
9. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
10. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
11. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
12. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
13. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
14. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.42%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,302,578
• List price: $829,000
• Delta: -36.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
816 Addison St	0.38mi	4/2.0	2,088 (-7%)	6mo	$1,250,000	$599	61
2514-2516 Mathews St	0.39mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,177 (-3%)	9mo	$2,100,000	$965	56
1347 University Ave	0.43mi	4/4.0	2,362 (+5%)	15mo	$925,000	$392	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-197,161
• Equity at exit: $123,607

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-241,144
• Equity at exit: $71,677

Cash invested: $232,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Berkeley: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+78

Original CA rent control city; vacancy rent control after Costa Hawkins limits.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94702

• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 23.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,924 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,347
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,036 /mo · $12,435/yr
• Insurance: −$345
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,244
• Net cashflow: $-1,049

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,252

Max offer price $677,198

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-476	-5% $-763	+0% $-1,049	+5% $-1,336	+10% $-1,622
Rent	-10% $-1,517	-5% $-1,283	+0% $-1,049	+5% $-815	+10% $-581
Rate	-1.0pp $-632	-0.5pp $-838	base $-1,049	+0.5pp $-1,264	+1.0pp $-1,482

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	1	1	$5,924
Total (2 units)			$5,924

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $207,250
• Closing costs: $24,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1122 University Ave Berkeley, CA	5.0	1.0–4.0	1129	$5,617	$4.97	0d	17	0.21mi
1034 Grayson St Unit 1 Berkeley, CA	3.0	3.0	1498	$6,475	$4.32	45d	1	0.71mi
2726 Wallace St Berkeley, CA	3.0	3.0	1856	$6,300	$3.39	4d	1	0.72mi
1415 10th St Berkeley, CA	3.0	3.5	1477	$3,650	$2.47	13d	1	0.87mi
1316 Russell St Berkeley, CA	4.0	2.5	2200	$8,500	$3.86	0d	1	0.92mi
1730 Francisco St Berkeley, CA	5.0	3.5	2250	$8,000	$3.56	26d	1	0.99mi
1308 Stannage Ave Berkeley, CA	3.0	1.0	1497	$4,200	$2.81	17d	1	1.01mi
1114 Talbot Ave Albany, CA	3.0	2.0	1569	$4,700	$3.00	20d	1	1.25mi
2038 Parker St Berkeley, CA	3.0	1.0–2.5	1118	$6,921	$6.19	0d	17	1.31mi
2108 Berkeley Way Berkeley, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	965	$8,100	$8.39	0d	1	1.33mi
2175 Dwight Way Unit 01 Berkeley, CA	5.0	3.0	1500	$6,750	$4.50	20d	1	1.39mi
1039 Evelyn Ave Unit B Albany, CA	3.0	2.0	2032	$5,450	$2.68	4d	1	1.39mi
2185 Dwight Way Unit 04 Berkeley, CA	5.0	3.0	1449	$6,750	$4.66	20d	1	1.40mi
1251 63rd St Emeryville, CA	3.0	2.0	1400	$4,750	$3.39	26d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $829,000 Active 92 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $829,000 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $829,000 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $829,000 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $829,000 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $829,000 Active 84 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $829,000 Active 83 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $829,000 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $829,000 Active 79 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $829,000 Active 78 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $829,000 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $829,000 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $829,000 Active 73 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $829,000 Active 72 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $829,000 Active 71 DOM
16. 2026-03-21
    listed $829,000 Active 592-char remark

    Show marketing remark (592 chars)

    2223 San Pablo Avenue is an Add Value owner‑user opportunity offering a street‑front retail space and a residential unit in Berkeley's Poets Corner. The flexible mixed‑use layout allows a buyer to occupy, customize, or re‑tenant immediately. The property features clear value‑add potential, with deferred maintenance providing room for upgrades, modernization, and long‑term repositioning. Located along the active San Pablo Avenue corridor minutes to Downtown, BART, and Fourth Street this site delivers strong visibility, steady traffic, and long‑term upside in a supply‑constrained market.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $71,088
• − Mortgage interest: −$46,437
• − Property taxes: −$12,435
• − Insurance: −$4,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,687
• − Management: −$5,687
• − Depreciation: −$24,116
• Taxable loss: −$27,419
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,581
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,008/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The property is in fair condition with some minor repairs and maintenance needed. Painting the exterior walls and pruning the trees would significantly increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor exterior paint — There is some discoloration and wear visible on the exterior walls.
• Minor landscaping — There is some minor wear and tear visible in the landscaping.

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior walls — Painting the exterior walls will improve the curb appeal and increase the property's value.
• Both prune trees — Pruning the trees will improve the landscaping and increase the property's value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior paint · There is some discoloration and wear visible on the exterior walls.	Minor	$500–3,000
landscaping · There is some minor wear and tear visible in the landscaping.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior walls — Painting the exterior walls will improve the curb appeal and increase the property's value. ↑
• Both prune trees — Pruning the trees will improve the landscaping and increase the property's value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Berkeley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0604740
• Math proficiency: 61% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,202
• Composite: 57.37/100
• National rank: #2288
• State rank: #175 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Berkeley

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #74
• US rank: #2860

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Berkeley, CA
• County: Alameda County · 1,614,355 people
• City population: 121,632
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 17,635
• Household income: $99,775
• Rent vs Own: 48.7% rent · 51.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1183.0

Population outlook (Alameda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,928,884 people
• By 2030: 2,069,146 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 2,338,405 · +21.2%
• By 2050: 2,586,608 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 3,061,911 · +58.7%
• By 2100: 3,234,133 · +67.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Black 15% Asian 14% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 8% Chinese 3% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Alameda

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.6) · D 74.6% · R 21.0% · Other 4.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.9pp toward R · 2008: 59.5pp · 2024: 53.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.6 2020: D+62.5 2016: D+64.4 2012: D+59.8 2008: D+59.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1257.77%
• Current HPI: 327.4724
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.65%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-21 Listed $829,000 San Francisco MLS