8651 Foothill Blvd #88

Rancho Cucamonga, CA 91730

$269,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,554 sqft · Built 2016 · Manufactured · Active · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,463/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax + insurance: −$207
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$727
• Net cashflow: $1,118/mo
• Annual: $13,420/yr
• Cap rate: 11.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.82%
• DSCR: 1.79
• 1% rule: 1.29%
• Cash to close: $75,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $269k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $269k).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($265k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $265k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#237 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, commute A, housing A-; Watch: amenities D+, health & safety D, cost of living F.
• Central Elementary (suburban): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #379 of 517 in CA (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Bear Gulch Elementary (451 students, 82% FRL); Cucamonga Middle (650 students, 68% FRL); Alta Loma High (math 53% / reading 77%, grade B, #161 of 1,170 statewide, top 14%, 2,456 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 44% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 65% at this address vs 25% district-wide (+40 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Central Elementary average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 142 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.8% rent growth), your $75k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 2.7% in Rancho Cucamonga — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,463/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($92k/yr) (locally 4013% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.