10064 State Route T Hwy Hwy

Adrian, MO 64720

$245,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Built 1997 · SingleFamily · Active · 28 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,150/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,290
• Tax + insurance: −$190
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $-571/mo
• Annual: $-6,854/yr
• Cap rate: 3.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.95%
• DSCR: 0.56
• 1% rule: 0.47%
• Cash to close: $68,852

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $246k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-571 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $145k (41.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $115k (53.2% below list).
• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $115k (53.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#102 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Ballard R-II (rural): math 30% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #342 of 535 in MO (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ballard Elem. (math 15% / reading 34%, grade F, #877 of 1,115 statewide, top 79%, 54 students, 44% FRL); Ballard High (math 30% / reading 30%, grade F, #375 of 521 statewide, top 72%, 50 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Bates County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bates County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 3.5% vs local median 2.5% in Adrian — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.