10064 State Route T Hwy Hwy · Adrian, MO 64720

$245,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1997 2.90 ac lot $190/sqft · 22% below area Est $317k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.1/30.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful country setting on 2.9 acres. New smart siding, vinyl windows and roof in 2011. 30x50 shop w/ concrete, heat, a/c, electricity & water. Also a 20x30 shed w/ electricity, water & 3 stalls w/ built-in storage. Perfect hobby farm. Not too close to neighbors, but not too far either. Nice & quiet. Property is being sold AS-IS in its present condition. House A/C not working, may need Freon. Some shop lights out. Water access to shed is currently disconnected (under house). Utilities shut off, except electricity. 2nd bath remodel to be finished on 05/12/18.

Key facts

• 2.9 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1997

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Other water source; Other sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Ranch style; Facing direction not specified; 1 story
• Construction: Lap siding; Other roof type; Built approximately 21–30 years ago; Built on crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Approximately 2.9 acres; Acreage lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Wood heating; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Crawl space basement; One fireplace in the family room; Ranch floor plan
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in a bathroom

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $246k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-571 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $145k (41.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $115k (53.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $115k (53.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.5% vs local median 2.5% in Adrian — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#102 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Ballard R-II (rural): math 30% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #342 of 535 in MO (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ballard Elem. (math 15% / reading 34%, grade F, #877 of 1,115 statewide, top 79%, 54 students, 44% FRL); Ballard High (math 30% / reading 30%, grade F, #375 of 521 statewide, top 72%, 50 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Bates County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bates County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $115,025 (53.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.47% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.95%
• DSCR: 0.56
• GRM: 17.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $316,630
• List price: $245,900
• Delta: -22.34%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $97,428
• Equity at exit: $221,526

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.58×
• Total profit: $315,284
• Equity at exit: $477,730

Cash invested: $68,852 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64720

• Home prices YoY: 8.1%
• Active inventory: 29
• Price-to-rent: 17.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,150 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,290
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,055/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $-571

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,873

Max offer price $145,001

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-432	-5% $-502	+0% $-571	+5% $-641	+10% $-710
Rent	-10% $-662	-5% $-617	+0% $-571	+5% $-526	+10% $-480
Rate	-1.0pp $-447	-0.5pp $-509	base $-571	+0.5pp $-635	+1.0pp $-700

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,475
• Closing costs: $7,377
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Active 607-char remark
2. 2026-04-28
   historical Active Under Contract 607-char remark
3. 2026-04-27
   listed $245,900 Active 607-char remark
4. 2026-04-19
   price $245,900 607-char remark
5. 2026-04-19
   historical $124,900 607-char remark
6. 2018-08-09
   soldstatus
7. 2018-07-19
   soldstatus 584-char remark

   Show marketing remark (584 chars)

   Beautiful country setting on 2.9 acres. New smart siding, vinyl windows and roof in 2011. 30x50 shop w/ concrete, heat, a/c, electricity & water. Also a 20x30 shed w/ electricity, water & 3 stalls w/ built-in storage. Perfect hobby farm. Not too close to neighbors, but not too far either. Nice & quiet. Property is being sold AS-IS in its present condition. House A/C not working, may need Freon. Some shop lights out. Water access to shed is currently disconnected (under house). Utilities shut off, except electricity. 2nd bath remodel to be finished on 05/12/18.

8. 2018-05-02
   listed $140,000 584-char remark

   Show marketing remark (584 chars)

   Beautiful country setting on 2.9 acres. New smart siding, vinyl windows and roof in 2011. 30x50 shop w/ concrete, heat, a/c, electricity & water. Also a 20x30 shed w/ electricity, water & 3 stalls w/ built-in storage. Perfect hobby farm. Not too close to neighbors, but not too far either. Nice & quiet. Property is being sold AS-IS in its present condition. House A/C not working, may need Freon. Some shop lights out. Water access to shed is currently disconnected (under house). Utilities shut off, except electricity. 2nd bath remodel to be finished on 05/12/18.

9. 2016-07-29
   soldstatus
10. 2016-07-18
    historical
11. 2016-05-25
    listed $127,200
12. 2015-10-23
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,055 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,385 · $199/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,331/yr (+$111/mo · 126.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,803
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,774
• − Property taxes: −$1,055
• − Insurance: −$1,230
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,104
• − Management: −$1,104
• − Depreciation: −$7,153
• Taxable loss: −$11,617
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,788
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,066/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ballard R-II
• NCES district ID: 2904170
• Math proficiency: 30% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $47,992
• Composite: 34.73/100
• National rank: #10044
• State rank: #342 of 535 in MO

Livability — Adrian

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #102
• US rank: #6848

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,358

Population outlook (Bates County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,295 people
• By 2030: 14,644 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 13,282 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 11,944 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 9,442 · -38.3%
• By 2100: 7,372 · -51.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 4% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Portuguese 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Bates

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 18.7% · R 80.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -42.8pp toward R · 2008: -18.9pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+58.5 2016: R+54.6 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+18.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 21.86%
• Current HPI: 293.132
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+93.3% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-25 Listing Removed — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-05 Relisted — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-28 Contingent — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-27 Listed $245,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-19 Price Changed $245,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-19 Coming Soon — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-08-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-07-19 Sold (MLS) — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-05-02 Listed $140,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-07-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-07-18 Listing Removed — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-05-25 Listed $127,200 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-10-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,055 · +14.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.