1569 Appaloosa Trl

Creedmoor, NC 27525

$275,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Built 1985 · Manufactured · Pending · 39 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,835/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax + insurance: −$196
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $-188/mo
• Annual: $-2,259/yr
• Cap rate: 5.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.93%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $77,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $275k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-188 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $242k (12.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (33.3% below list).
• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($267k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $183k (33.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (8.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#72 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Granville County Schools (rural): math 28% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #137 of 178 in NC (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: G. C. Hawley Middle (math 34% / reading 44%, grade F, #238 of 475 statewide, top 51%, 486 students, 59% FRL); South Granville High (math 52% / reading 52%, grade D+, #292 of 535 statewide, top 56%, 709 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 46% at this address vs 32% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Granville County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 251 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 428 units permitted in Granville County in 2024 (120 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 6 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $126k; list at $275k implies a 117% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 45% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 2.2% in Creedmoor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.