1569 Appaloosa Trl · Creedmoor, NC 27525

$275,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1985 0.93 ac lot Est $314k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.2/15.0
• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• Appreciation +9.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

WELL MAINTAINED 3 BEDROOM HOME ON ALMOST AN ACRE. MORE TO COME!!

Key facts

• New lighting
• New cabinets
• Updated home

Tags

• UPDATED HOME
• LVP FLOORING
• NEW CABINETS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• NEW LIGHTING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Property tax listed (annual amount available)
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Additional parking
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Publicly maintained road access
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home; One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Deck; Gazebo; Chain link fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing electric range; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; Water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Bathtub/shower combination; Walk-in shower; Primary bedroom on main level
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-188 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $242k (12.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (33.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $183k (33.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 2.2% in Creedmoor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#72 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Granville County Schools (rural): math 28% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #137 of 178 in NC (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: G. C. Hawley Middle (math 34% / reading 44%, grade F, #238 of 475 statewide, top 51%, 486 students, 59% FRL); South Granville High (math 52% / reading 52%, grade D+, #292 of 535 statewide, top 56%, 709 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 46% at this address vs 32% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Granville County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 251 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 428 units permitted in Granville County in 2024 (120 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (8.4% local appreciation)).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($267k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $126k; list at $275k implies a 117% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 45% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,497 (33.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.93%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $314,496
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3918 Batson Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,611 (+6%)	24mo	$335,000	$208	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.42% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.41×
• Total profit: $108,614
• Equity at exit: $216,856

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.21×
• Total profit: $324,256
• Equity at exit: $438,249

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27525

• Home prices YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 251
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,835 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $974/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $-188

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,073

Max offer price $241,738

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-33	-5% $-110	+0% $-188	+5% $-266	+10% $-344
Rent	-10% $-333	-5% $-261	+0% $-188	+5% $-116	+10% $-43
Rate	-1.0pp $-50	-0.5pp $-118	base $-188	+0.5pp $-260	+1.0pp $-332

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3650 Jasmine Ct Wake Forest, NC	3.0	2.0	1481	$1,800	$1.22	6d	1	0.19mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-04-29
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-25
   price $275,000
3. 2026-03-21
   listed $285,000 Active
4. 2026-01-30
   soldstatus $126,500
5. 2007-06-01
   soldstatus $90,750 64-char remark

   Show marketing remark (64 chars)

   WELL MAINTAINED 3 BEDROOM HOME ON ALMOST AN ACRE. MORE TO COME!!

6. 2007-06-01
   soldstatus $90,750 64-char remark

   Show marketing remark (64 chars)

   WELL MAINTAINED 3 BEDROOM HOME ON ALMOST AN ACRE. MORE TO COME!!

7. 2007-05-31
   soldstatus $91,000
8. 2007-04-30
   listed $90,000 64-char remark

   Show marketing remark (64 chars)

   WELL MAINTAINED 3 BEDROOM HOME ON ALMOST AN ACRE. MORE TO COME!!

9. 2007-04-30
   listed $90,000 64-char remark

   Show marketing remark (64 chars)

   WELL MAINTAINED 3 BEDROOM HOME ON ALMOST AN ACRE. MORE TO COME!!

10. 2007-04-14
    historical
11. 2007-04-14
    listed $89,500
12. 2006-08-29
    listed $89,500
13. 1999-06-24
    soldstatus $68,000
14. 1999-03-03
    listed $69,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $974 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,255 · $188/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,281/yr (+$107/mo · 131.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 45% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,020
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$974
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,762
• − Management: −$1,762
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$7,257
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,742
• After-tax cash flow: $-518/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Granville County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3701800
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $49,713
• Composite: 27.81/100
• National rank: #6887
• State rank: #137 of 178 in NC

Livability — Creedmoor

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #72
• US rank: #5473

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Franklin County · 64,885 people
• Metro: Raleigh-Cary, NC
• Population (ZIP): 17,110
• Household income: $73,036
• Rent vs Own: 16.7% rent · 83.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 446.0

Population outlook (Granville County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,753 people
• By 2030: 61,381 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 61,861 · +1.8%
• By 2050: 61,261 · +0.8%
• By 2075: 59,948 · -1.3%
• By 2100: 55,273 · -9.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Black 24% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Granville

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.4) · D 44.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.6pp · 2024: -9.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.4 2020: R+6.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+6.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.42%
• Current HPI: 294.1531
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Raleigh-Cary, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+293.4% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Pending — TMLS
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $275,000 TMLS
• 2026-03-21 Listed $285,000 TMLS
• 2026-01-30 Sold (Public Records) $126,500 Public Records
• 2007-06-01 Sold (MLS) $90,750 AMLSNC
• 2007-06-01 Sold (MLS) $90,750 TMLS
• 2007-05-31 Sold (Public Records) $91,000 Public Records
• 2007-04-30 Listed $90,000 AMLSNC
• 2007-04-30 Listed $90,000 TMLS
• 2007-04-14 Listed $89,500 TMLS
• 2007-04-14 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2006-08-29 Listed $89,500 TMLS
• 1999-06-24 Sold (MLS) $68,000 TMLS
• 1999-03-03 Listed $69,900 TMLS

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $974 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.