122 Meadowlark Rd

Urbanna, VA 23175

$146,000B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Built 1979 · SingleFamily · Pending · 35 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,101/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$766
• Tax + insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $767/mo
• Annual: $9,209/yr
• Cap rate: 12.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.53%
• DSCR: 2.00
• 1% rule: 1.44%
• Cash to close: $40,880

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $146k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $767 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $146k).
• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($142k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $142k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#482 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-, crime B, cost of living B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Middlesex County Public School District (rural): math 45% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #90 of 131 in VA (top 69%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 97 units permitted in Middlesex County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Middlesex County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $31k; list at $146k implies a 371% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.6% vs local median 3.8% in Urbanna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.