122 Meadowlark Rd · Urbanna, VA 23175

$146,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1979 1.01 ac lot $127/sqft · 55% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Quiet, peaceful home down a dirt road within a short distance to Remlick Marina. Nice acre lot with blooming trees and flowers that backs up to some farmland. On the interior you will find a large living room with fireplace, a dining area next to the kitchen and a kitchen with plenty of cabinet space. The home boasts three full bedrooms and two full bathrooms. Your personal touches can bring this home to life and provide a tranquil setting with wooded views and close enough to smell the water and river life. Additional storage closet on side of house. Small detached storage room.

Key facts

• Dining area
• Wooded views
• Large living room

Tags

• ACRE LOT
• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• FIREPLACE
• DINING AREA
• PLENTY OF CABINET SPACE
• WOODED VIEWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $146k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $767 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $146k).
• Recommended offer: $142k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.6% vs local median 3.8% in Urbanna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#482 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-, crime B, cost of living B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Middlesex County Public School District (rural): math 45% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #90 of 131 in VA (top 69%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 97 units permitted in Middlesex County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Middlesex County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($142k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $31k; list at $146k implies a 371% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $141,620 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.53%
• DSCR: 2.00
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $321,963
• List price: $146,000
• Delta: -54.65%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.62% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.74×
• Total profit: $71,250
• Equity at exit: $70,782

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.39×
• Total profit: $179,292
• Equity at exit: $113,255

Cash invested: $40,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23175

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 29
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,101 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$766
• Tax from tax record: −$66 /mo · $795/yr
• Insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $767

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,130

Max offer price $146,000

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,500
• Closing costs: $4,380
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-16
   status $146,000 Pending 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $146,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $146,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $146,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $146,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 586-char remark

   Show marketing remark (586 chars)

   Quiet, peaceful home down a dirt road within a short distance to Remlick Marina. Nice acre lot with blooming trees and flowers that backs up to some farmland. On the interior you will find a large living room with fireplace, a dining area next to the kitchen and a kitchen with plenty of cabinet space. The home boasts three full bedrooms and two full bathrooms. Your personal touches can bring this home to life and provide a tranquil setting with wooded views and close enough to smell the water and river life. Additional storage closet on side of house. Small detached storage room.

7. 2026-04-18
   listed $146,000 Active 586-char remark

   Show marketing remark (586 chars)

   Quiet, peaceful home down a dirt road within a short distance to Remlick Marina. Nice acre lot with blooming trees and flowers that backs up to some farmland. On the interior you will find a large living room with fireplace, a dining area next to the kitchen and a kitchen with plenty of cabinet space. The home boasts three full bedrooms and two full bathrooms. Your personal touches can bring this home to life and provide a tranquil setting with wooded views and close enough to smell the water and river life. Additional storage closet on side of house. Small detached storage room.

8. 1997-02-01
   soldstatus $31,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $795 · $66/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,197 · $100/mo
• Expected delta: +$402/yr (+$33/mo · 50.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 60% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,218
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,178
• − Property taxes: −$795
• − Insurance: −$730
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,017
• − Management: −$2,017
• − Depreciation: −$4,247
• Taxable income: $7,232
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,736
• After-tax cash flow: $7,473/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middlesex County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102490
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $51,986
• Composite: 44.58/100
• National rank: #2783
• State rank: #90 of 131 in VA

Livability — Urbanna

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #482
• US rank: #20998

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B Employment C Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,750

Population outlook (Middlesex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 9,829 people
• By 2030: 9,340 · -5.0%
• By 2040: 8,411 · -14.4%
• By 2050: 7,795 · -20.7%
• By 2075: 7,471 · -24.0%
• By 2100: 7,049 · -28.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 19% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1% Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Middlesex

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.9% · R 63.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.2pp toward R · 2008: -19.2pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+25.1 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.62%
• Current HPI: 287.8475
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+371.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-04-18 Listed $146,000 CVRMLS
• 1997-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $31,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $795 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.