53 Hogback Mountain Ln

Wharton, PA 16720

$45,000A-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 600 sqft · Built 2022 · Other · Active · 227 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $815/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax + insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$171
• Net cashflow: $304/mo
• Annual: $3,644/yr
• Cap rate: 15.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.21%
• DSCR: 2.52
• 1% rule: 1.81%
• Cash to close: $12,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $45k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $304 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($815 rent vs $45k).
• It's been on market 227 days — a 12% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $40k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($311 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade A — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Austin Area SD (rural): math 45% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #337 of 658 in PA (top 51%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 24 units permitted in Potter County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Potter County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 227 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: roof — Rusty metal roof
• Major: exterior — Weathered siding, debris
• Major: flooring — Worn carpet
• Major: interior walls/paint — Worn paint
• Major: windows — Old, possibly single-pane windows
• Major: HVAC/mechanicals — Old wood stove