53 Hogback Mountain Ln · Wharton, PA 16720

$45,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 600 sqft · Other public records · 227 Days on market

Built 2022 Fair condition 0.80 ac lot $75/sqft · 16% below area Est $75k · 40% under ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.0/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This cabin/travel trailer combination could be your rustic outdoor adventure headquarters. The property is very close to First Fork Sinnemahoning Creek, Nelson Run and over 14000 acres of state forest. It is also a reasonable driving distance to Stevenson Dam, Sinnemahoning State Park and other areas with known elk activity. The camp stays warm with a high output wood stove and has a 100 amp electric service (and potentially high speed internet access). The cabin is located on a private road and the lot is just under 1 acre. Take a look at this camp ASAP before it's gone. Call for a showing today!

Key facts

• Private road
• Just under 1 acre
• 0.8 acre lot

Tags

• HIGH OUTPUT WOOD STOVE
• 100 AMP ELECTRIC SERVICE
• PRIVATE ROAD
• JUST UNDER 1 ACRE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $45k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $304 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($815 rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $40k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade A — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Austin Area SD (rural): math 45% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #337 of 658 in PA (top 51%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 24 units permitted in Potter County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($311 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• Potter County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 227 days — a 12% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $39,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 227 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.81% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.21%
• DSCR: 2.52
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $74,581
• List price: $45,000
• Delta: -39.66%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.91% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.14×
• Total profit: $27,008
• Equity at exit: $22,592

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.27×
• Total profit: $66,453
• Equity at exit: $36,773

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16720

• Home prices YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 18
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $815 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $355/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$171
• Net cashflow: $304

Break-even live

Break-even rent $430

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $45,000 Active 227 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $45,000 Active 226 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $45,000 Active 225 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $45,000 Active 224 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $45,000 Active 222 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $45,000 Active 221 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $45,000 Active 218 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $45,000 Active 217 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $45,000 Active 216 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $45,000 Active 215 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $53,000 Active 212 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $53,000 Active 211 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $53,000 Active 210 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $53,000 Active 209 DOM
15. 2026-04-03
    price $53,000 604-char remark

    Show marketing remark (604 chars)

    This cabin/travel trailer combination could be your rustic outdoor adventure headquarters. The property is very close to First Fork Sinnemahoning Creek, Nelson Run and over 14000 acres of state forest. It is also a reasonable driving distance to Stevenson Dam, Sinnemahoning State Park and other areas with known elk activity. The camp stays warm with a high output wood stove and has a 100 amp electric service (and potentially high speed internet access). The cabin is located on a private road and the lot is just under 1 acre. Take a look at this camp ASAP before it's gone. Call for a showing today!

16. 2025-11-21
    price $58,000 604-char remark

    Show marketing remark (604 chars)

    This cabin/travel trailer combination could be your rustic outdoor adventure headquarters. The property is very close to First Fork Sinnemahoning Creek, Nelson Run and over 14000 acres of state forest. It is also a reasonable driving distance to Stevenson Dam, Sinnemahoning State Park and other areas with known elk activity. The camp stays warm with a high output wood stove and has a 100 amp electric service (and potentially high speed internet access). The cabin is located on a private road and the lot is just under 1 acre. Take a look at this camp ASAP before it's gone. Call for a showing today!

17. 2025-11-03
    listed $65,000 Active 604-char remark

    Show marketing remark (604 chars)

    This cabin/travel trailer combination could be your rustic outdoor adventure headquarters. The property is very close to First Fork Sinnemahoning Creek, Nelson Run and over 14000 acres of state forest. It is also a reasonable driving distance to Stevenson Dam, Sinnemahoning State Park and other areas with known elk activity. The camp stays warm with a high output wood stove and has a 100 amp electric service (and potentially high speed internet access). The cabin is located on a private road and the lot is just under 1 acre. Take a look at this camp ASAP before it's gone. Call for a showing today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $355 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $533 · $44/mo
• Expected delta: +$178/yr (+$15/mo · 50.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥91°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,775
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$355
• − Insurance: −$891
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$782
• − Management: −$782
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $3,135
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$752
• After-tax cash flow: $2,892/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This cabin/travel trailer combination requires significant repairs and updates to improve its condition and value. The roof, exterior, flooring, interior walls, windows, and HVAC need to be replaced or upgraded to make it move-in ready.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Rusty metal roof
• Major exterior — Weathered siding, debris
• Major flooring — Worn carpet
• Major interior walls/paint — Worn paint
• Major windows — Old, possibly single-pane windows
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — Old wood stove

Value-add opportunities

• Both Replace roof — Improves both resale and rental value
• Both Replace siding — Improves both resale and rental value
• Both Replace carpet — Improves both resale and rental value
• Both Paint interior walls — Improves both resale and rental value
• Both Replace windows — Improves both resale and rental value
• Both Upgrade HVAC — Improves both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Rusty metal roof	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior · Weathered siding, debris	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · Worn carpet	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · Worn paint	Major	$15,000–50,000
windows · Old, possibly single-pane windows	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · Old wood stove	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 6 items		$90,000–300,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Replace roof — Improves both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Replace siding — Improves both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Replace carpet — Improves both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Paint interior walls — Improves both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Replace windows — Improves both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Upgrade HVAC — Improves both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Austin Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4202700
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,291
• Composite: 47.59/100
• National rank: #4953
• State rank: #337 of 658 in PA

Livability — Wharton

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,196

Population outlook (Potter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,824 people
• By 2030: 15,023 · -5.1%
• By 2040: 13,290 · -16.0%
• By 2050: 11,572 · -26.9%
• By 2075: 8,144 · -48.5%
• By 2100: 5,102 · -67.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Potter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.3) · D 18.4% · R 80.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.9pp toward R · 2008: -37.4pp · 2024: -62.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.3 2020: R+60.8 2016: R+63.6 2012: R+45.9 2008: R+37.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.91%
• Current HPI: 115.4722
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-18.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $53,000 NMPA
• 2025-11-21 Price Changed $58,000 NMPA
• 2025-11-03 Listed $65,000 NMPA

Property tax history

+41.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $355 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.