180 Cottage Walk

Ocean Beach, NY 11770

$1,599,999C-

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,704 sqft · Built 1947 · SingleFamily · Active · 128 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $10,809/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,391
• Tax + insurance: −$2,104
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,270
• Net cashflow: $-1,956/mo
• Annual: $-23,471/yr
• Cap rate: 5.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.01%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $448,000

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $1.60M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-23k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.25M (21.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.08M (32.4% below list).
• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.41M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.08M (32.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $171k of equity ($11k loan paydown + $160k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,163 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Fire Island Union Free School District (suburban): math 75% / reading 90% proficiency, ranked #44 of 590 in NY (top 8%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Woodhull School (math 75% / reading 90%, grade A+, #133 of 2,108 statewide, top 6%, 34 students, 0% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo; built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $450k; list at $1.60M implies a 256% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$275k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.