12343 Haroldson Forest Dr

Houston, TX 77044

$249,199C-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,351 sqft · Built 1979 · SingleFamily · Active · 265 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,536/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,307
• Tax + insurance: −$749
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$533
• Net cashflow: $-52/mo
• Annual: $-628/yr
• Cap rate: 6.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.24%
• DSCR: 1.01
• 1% rule: 1.02%
• Cash to close: $69,776

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $249k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-52 ($-628/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $240k (3.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $249k).
• It's been on market 265 days — a 12% lower offer ($219k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $219k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.6%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Sheldon ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #746 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Garrett El (math 17% / reading 19%, grade F, #3,785 of 4,322 statewide, top 88%, 672 students, 92% FRL); Michael R Null Middle (math 15% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,466 of 1,662 statewide, top 89%, 1,164 students, 89% FRL); C E King H S (math 19% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 3,473 students, 82% FRL) — zoned schools average 87% FRL vs 72% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 340 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 12 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask is 8496% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($95k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 265 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?