12343 Haroldson Forest Dr · Houston, TX 77044

$249,199

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,351 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 265 Days on market

Built 1979 7,213 sqft lot $74/sqft · 12% below area Est $283k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• ARV discount +12.8/15.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

LARGE SIX BEDROOM SIX BATH HOME! This spacious six bedroom, six bathroom home is located in Northeast Houston nestled on a nice sized cul-de-sac lot. It was formerly used as an assisted living facility with each bedroom having its own designated bathroom. The property is being sold AS IS and features ceramic tile flooring, large windows, and is in a very picturesque area with many wonderfully restored historical homes surrounding it. Here you will be easily accessible to Beltway 8, making your commutes a breeze. There are also plenty of beautiful walking spaces with a lot of family-friendly areas; it's one of the best quiet spots in Houston! WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

Key facts

• Cul-de-sac lot
• Large windows
• Walking spaces

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC LOT
• CERAMIC TILE FLOORING
• LARGE WINDOWS
• ACCESSIBLE TO BELTWAY 8
• WALKING SPACES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-52 ($-628/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $240k (3.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $249k).
• Recommended offer: $219k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Sheldon ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #746 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 340 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($95k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.6%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 265 days — a 12% lower offer ($219k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 12 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask is 8496% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,295 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 265 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.24%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $282,638
• List price: $249,199
• Delta: -11.83%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12414 Village Of Kings Lake Blvd	0.40mi	5/2.5 (+1)	3,200 (-4%)	9mo	$320,000	$100	59
12303 Kings Garden Ct	0.49mi	4/2.5	3,136 (-6%)	13mo	$299,000	$95	54
11754 Green Coral Dr	0.75mi	4/2.5	3,136 (-6%)	14mo	$329,000	$105	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.59% appreciation · 0.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-33,569
• Equity at exit: $53,221

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-39,240
• Equity at exit: $50,172

Cash invested: $69,776 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77044

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 340
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,536 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,307
• Tax from tax record: −$579 /mo · $6,943/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$533
• Net cashflow: $-52

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,602

Max offer price $239,955

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $89	-5% $18	+0% $-52	+5% $-123	+10% $-193
Rent	-10% $-253	-5% $-152	+0% $-52	+5% $48	+10% $148
Rate	-1.0pp $73	-0.5pp $11	base $-52	+0.5pp $-117	+1.0pp $-183

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,300
• Closing costs: $7,476
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 48 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,199 Active 265 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,199 Active 262 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,199 Active 261 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,199 Active 260 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,199 Active 259 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,199 Active 257 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,199 Active 253 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,199 Active 252 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $249,199 Active 251 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $249,199 Active 248 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,199 Active 247 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,199 Active 246 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,199 Active 245 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,199 Active 244 DOM
15. 2025-09-30
    listed $2,899
16. 2025-09-29
    historical $2,899

    Show marketing remark (874 chars)

    LARGE SIX BEDROOM SIX BATH HOME! This spacious six bedroom, six bathroom home is located in Northeast Houston nestled on a nice sized cul-de-sac lot. It was formerly used as an assisted living facility with each bedroom having its own designated bathroom. The property is being sold AS IS and features ceramic tile flooring, large windows, and is in a very picturesque area with many wonderfully restored historical homes surrounding it. Here you will be easily accessible to Beltway 8, making your commutes a breeze. There are also plenty of beautiful walking spaces with a lot of family-friendly areas; it's one of the best quiet spots in Houston! WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

17. 2025-09-29
    listed $249,199 Active 874-char remark

    Show marketing remark (874 chars)

    LARGE SIX BEDROOM SIX BATH HOME! This spacious six bedroom, six bathroom home is located in Northeast Houston nestled on a nice sized cul-de-sac lot. It was formerly used as an assisted living facility with each bedroom having its own designated bathroom. The property is being sold AS IS and features ceramic tile flooring, large windows, and is in a very picturesque area with many wonderfully restored historical homes surrounding it. Here you will be easily accessible to Beltway 8, making your commutes a breeze. There are also plenty of beautiful walking spaces with a lot of family-friendly areas; it's one of the best quiet spots in Houston! WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

18. 2025-09-29
    historical

    Show marketing remark (874 chars)

    LARGE SIX BEDROOM SIX BATH HOME! This spacious six bedroom, six bathroom home is located in Northeast Houston nestled on a nice sized cul-de-sac lot. It was formerly used as an assisted living facility with each bedroom having its own designated bathroom. The property is being sold AS IS and features ceramic tile flooring, large windows, and is in a very picturesque area with many wonderfully restored historical homes surrounding it. Here you will be easily accessible to Beltway 8, making your commutes a breeze. There are also plenty of beautiful walking spaces with a lot of family-friendly areas; it's one of the best quiet spots in Houston! WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

19. 2025-07-08
    listed $2,899
20. 2025-06-30
    historical $2,899
21. 2025-05-14
    listed $249,199 Active
22. 2025-05-14
    historical
23. 2025-05-12
    price $249,199
24. 2025-01-13
    status Active
25. 2025-01-10
    status Pending
26. 2024-12-31
    listed $2,899
27. 2024-12-30
    listed $252,199 Active
28. 2024-12-30
    historical
29. 2024-09-09
    price $252,199
30. 2023-12-02
    historical
31. 2023-12-01
    price $259,999
32. 2023-11-16
    listed
33. 2023-10-12
    historical
34. 2023-10-03
    listed $275,999 Active
35. 2021-06-11
    soldstatus
36. 2020-09-04
    soldstatus Sold
37. 2020-08-28
    status Pending
38. 2020-08-18
    status Active
39. 2020-08-13
    status Pending
40. 2019-10-24
    price $169,900
41. 2019-09-06
    listed $174,900 Active
42. 2019-09-05
    historical
43. 2019-08-05
    price $174,900
44. 2019-04-03
    listed $179,900 Active
45. 2008-03-05
    soldstatus
46. 2004-02-02
    soldstatus
47. 2000-02-25
    soldstatus
48. 1988-03-13
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,943 · $579/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,943 · $579/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,431
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,959
• − Property taxes: −$6,943
• − Insurance: −$2,043
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,434
• − Management: −$2,434
• − Depreciation: −$7,249
• Taxable loss: −$4,633
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,112
• After-tax cash flow: $484/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sheldon ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $49,443
• Composite: 19.5/100
• National rank: #8772
• State rank: #746 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 58,347
• Household income: $95,000
• Rent vs Own: 24.1% rent · 75.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1332.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% Black 32% White 19% Two or more races 18% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 35% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.59%
• Current HPI: 215.5736
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.92%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-98.4% since first listed

34 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-30 Listed for Rent $2,899 HARMLS
• 2025-09-29 Rental Removed $2,899 HARMLS
• 2025-09-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-29 Listed $249,199 HARMLS
• 2025-07-08 Listed for Rent $2,899 HARMLS
• 2025-06-30 Rental Removed $2,899 HARMLS
• 2025-05-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-05-14 Listed $249,199 HARMLS
• 2025-05-12 Price Changed $249,199 HARMLS
• 2025-01-13 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-01-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-12-31 Listed for Rent $2,899 HARMLS
• 2024-12-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-12-30 Listed $252,199 HARMLS
• 2024-09-09 Price Changed $252,199 HARMLS
• 2023-12-02 Rental Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-12-01 Price Changed $259,999 HARMLS
• 2023-11-16 Listed for Rent — HARMLS
• 2023-10-12 Rental Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-10-03 Listed $275,999 HARMLS
• 2021-06-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-09-04 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-08-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-08-18 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2020-08-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-10-24 Price Changed $169,900 HARMLS
• 2019-09-06 Listed $174,900 HARMLS
• 2019-09-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-08-05 Price Changed $174,900 HARMLS
• 2019-04-03 Listed $179,900 HARMLS
• 2008-03-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-02-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-02-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-03-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,943 · -22.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.