33 Sugar Run

Plymouth, NH 03285

$430,000C

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,408 sqft · Built 1980 · SingleFamily · Pending · 25 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,129/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,255
• Tax + insurance: −$802
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$867
• Net cashflow: $206/mo
• Annual: $2,467/yr
• Cap rate: 6.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.05%
• DSCR: 1.09
• 1% rule: 0.96%
• Cash to close: $120,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $430k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $206 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $413k (4.0% below list).
• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($424k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $413k (4.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $46k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $43k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#69 in NH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Pemi-Baker Regional School District (rural): math 45% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #77 of 171 in NH (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 487 units permitted in Grafton County in 2024 (127 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Grafton County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $120k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$74k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 1.9% in Plymouth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.