33 Sugar Run · Plymouth, NH 03285

$430,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,408 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1980 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Property is owned by the US Dept of Housing and Urban Development case #341-103857 UI. Bid submission by 11:59pm April 27. 2026 and daily until sold (all bidder status) Property is eligible for FHA's 203K owner occupants only for this type of loan. * * * NO REPAIRS PRIOR TO CLOSING THIS IS A NO EXCEPTIONS HUD RULE * * * HUD allows up to 3% toward closing cost-owner occupant ONLY. This contemporary 3-bedroom, 3-bath home sits on a full acre in the heart of New Hampshire, offering a blend of character, warmth, and functional space. A striking wood spiral staircase leads up to a cupola, creating a unique bonus area ideal for a home office or den. The home features multiple wood stoves fo

Key facts

• Multiple wood stoves
• Three-season porch
• Cupola

Tags

• WOOD SPIRAL STAIRCASE
• CUPOLA
• MULTIPLE WOOD STOVES
• THREE-SEASON PORCH
• PRIVATE FULL BATH
• VERSATILE LIVING SPACES

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Foreclosed/Bank-Owned/REO

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Drilled well water; Private sewer; Cable available; Propane (LP) gas available
• Home design: Contemporary-style home; Existing construction; Green exterior color
• Construction: Built in 1980; Wood frame construction; Clapboard exterior; Asphalt shingle roof; Survey status unknown
• Exterior features: Corner lot in a country, rural setting; Level lot; Paved driveway; Public paved road frontage (approximately 172 feet)

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wood heat available; Electric heating; Wood stove; Circuit breaker electrical panel; Generator-ready
• Interior features: 8 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $430k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $206 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $413k (4.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $413k (4.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 2.3% in Plymouth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#69 in NH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Pemi-Baker Regional School District (rural): math 45% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #77 of 171 in NH (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 487 units permitted in Grafton County in 2024 (127 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $46k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $43k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Grafton County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $120k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$74k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($424k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $412,918 (4.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.05%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.05×
• Total profit: $247,398
• Equity at exit: $387,378

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.97×
• Total profit: $718,476
• Equity at exit: $835,395

Cash invested: $120,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Hampshire: 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+1
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Has just-cause statute; 30-day notice; landlord-leaning vs. neighbors.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 03285

• Home prices YoY: 29.5%
• Active inventory: 50
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,129 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,255
• Tax from tax record: −$622 /mo · $7,468/yr
• Insurance: −$179
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$867
• Net cashflow: $206

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,869

Max offer price $430,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $107,500
• Closing costs: $12,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-24
   listed $430,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,468 · $622/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,421 · $702/mo
• Expected delta: +$953/yr (+$79/mo · 12.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $49,550
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,087
• − Property taxes: −$7,468
• − Insurance: −$2,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,964
• − Management: −$3,964
• − Depreciation: −$12,509
• Taxable loss: −$4,592
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,102
• After-tax cash flow: $3,569/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pemi-Baker Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3399965
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▲ 15.00%
• Median HH income: $42,275
• Composite: 49.93/100
• National rank: #4161
• State rank: #77 of 171 in NH

Livability — Plymouth

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #69
• US rank: #11975

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D Housing A Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 6,911
• Population (ZIP): 2,763

Population outlook (Grafton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,798 people
• By 2030: 87,131 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 82,000 · -7.7%
• By 2050: 77,064 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 68,769 · -22.6%
• By 2100: 61,631 · -30.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 14% Lithuanian 12% Romanian 5%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grafton

• 2024 margin: D (+19.9) · D 59.4% · R 39.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.8pp toward R · 2008: 27.7pp · 2024: 19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.9 2020: D+24.6 2016: D+19.0 2012: D+23.8 2008: D+27.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 106.72%
• Current HPI: 468.1616
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — PrimeMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $430,000 PrimeMLS

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,468 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.