27 Hickory Hill Rd Unit H

Williamsville, NY 14221

$269,900D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,332 sqft · Built 1970 · Condo · Active · 139 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,246/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax + insurance: −$330
• HOA: −$551
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $-522/mo
• Annual: $-6,268/yr
• Cap rate: 3.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.29%
• DSCR: 0.63
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $75,572

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $270k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-522 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $178k (34.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (16.8% below list).
• It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $178k (34.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#44 in NY, #693 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, commute A+, employment A+.
• Williamsville Central School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #114 of 590 in NY (top 19%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 25% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 334 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 4 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $165k; list at $270k implies a 64% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?