27 Hickory Hill Rd Unit H · Williamsville, NY 14221

$269,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,332 sqft · Condo public records · 139 Days on market

Built 1970 $203/sqft · 15% below area Est $318k · 15% under $551/mo HOA · 25% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.2/15.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is the condo you've been waiting for! In demand Hickory Hill Estates. 2 bedrooms / 2 full baths. Great layout with giant walk in pantry and tons of upgrades! Sub-Zero Refrigerator, Wide Plank Cherry Hardwood, Recent Furnace, A/C & HWT (2021), Corian Counters in Eat-in Kitchen and both Baths, new Stainless Steel Whirlpool oven/range & microwave, custom high end blinds throughout. En-suite primary bedroom with double door entry and huge walk in w/ California Closet shelving. Spacious living room, formal dining room, in - unit laundry. Lovely balcony with awning. Enjoy maintenance free living at it's best with a phenomenal pool, professional landscaping, beautiful fountain, clubhouse rentals & community events. HOA includes Verizon Fios, internet & Cable.

Key facts

• Hwt
• A/c
• Giant walk in pantry

Tags

• GIANT WALK IN PANTRY
• SUB-ZERO REFRIGERATOR
• WIDE PLANK CHERRY HARDWOOD
• RECENT FURNACE
• A/C
• HWT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-522 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $178k (34.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (16.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (34.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#44 in NY, #693 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, commute A+, employment A+.
• Williamsville Central School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #114 of 590 in NY (top 19%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 334 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $165k; list at $270k implies a 64% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 25% of rent.

Recommended offer $177,626 (34.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.29%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $317,526
• List price: $269,900
• Delta: -15.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.01% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-72,071
• Equity at exit: $40,243

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-84,571
• Equity at exit: $23,336

Cash invested: $75,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14221

• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 334
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,246 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax from tax record: −$218 /mo · $2,614/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$551
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $-522

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,907

Max offer price $177,626

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-370	-5% $-446	+0% $-522	+5% $-599	+10% $-675
Rent	-10% $-700	-5% $-611	+0% $-522	+5% $-434	+10% $-345
Rate	-1.0pp $-386	-0.5pp $-454	base $-522	+0.5pp $-592	+1.0pp $-663

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,475
• Closing costs: $8,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
116 Segsbury Rd Buffalo, NY	3.0	2.0	1488	$2,950	$1.98	25d	1	0.63mi
990 Hopkins Rd Unit G Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,200	$2.00	12d	1	0.77mi
540 Mill St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.5	1300	$2,095	$1.61	3d	1	1.31mi
1325 N Forest Rd Buffalo, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0	870	$1,748	$2.01	3d	9	1.31mi
23 Northwood Dr Buffalo, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	800	$2,145	$2.68	3d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $551 · $6,612/yr
• Likely covers: internetcablelandscapingpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $269,900 Active 139 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,900 Active 136 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,900 Active 135 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,900 Active 134 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,900 Active 133 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,900 Active 131 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $269,900 Active 128 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $269,900 Active 127 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $269,900 Active 126 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $269,900 Active 125 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $269,900 Active 122 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $269,900 Active 121 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $269,900 Active 120 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $269,900 Active 119 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,900 Active 118 DOM
16. 2026-04-09
    price $269,900 791-char remark

    Show marketing remark (791 chars)

    This is the condo you've been waiting for! In demand Hickory Hill Estates. 2 bedrooms / 2 full baths. Great layout with giant walk in pantry and tons of upgrades! Sub-Zero Refrigerator, Wide Plank Cherry Hardwood, Recent Furnace, A/C & HWT (2021), Corian Counters in Eat-in Kitchen and both Baths, new Stainless Steel Whirlpool oven/range & microwave, custom high end blinds throughout. En-suite primary bedroom with double door entry and huge walk in w/ California Closet shelving. Spacious living room, formal dining room, in - unit laundry. Lovely balcony with awning. Enjoy maintenance free living at it's best with a phenomenal pool, professional landscaping, beautiful fountain, clubhouse rentals & community events. HOA includes Verizon Fios, internet & Cable.

17. 2026-02-02
    listed $274,900 Active 791-char remark

    Show marketing remark (791 chars)

    This is the condo you've been waiting for! In demand Hickory Hill Estates. 2 bedrooms / 2 full baths. Great layout with giant walk in pantry and tons of upgrades! Sub-Zero Refrigerator, Wide Plank Cherry Hardwood, Recent Furnace, A/C & HWT (2021), Corian Counters in Eat-in Kitchen and both Baths, new Stainless Steel Whirlpool oven/range & microwave, custom high end blinds throughout. En-suite primary bedroom with double door entry and huge walk in w/ California Closet shelving. Spacious living room, formal dining room, in - unit laundry. Lovely balcony with awning. Enjoy maintenance free living at it's best with a phenomenal pool, professional landscaping, beautiful fountain, clubhouse rentals & community events. HOA includes Verizon Fios, internet & Cable.

18. 2026-02-02
    historical

    Show marketing remark (791 chars)

    This is the condo you've been waiting for! In demand Hickory Hill Estates. 2 bedrooms / 2 full baths. Great layout with giant walk in pantry and tons of upgrades! Sub-Zero Refrigerator, Wide Plank Cherry Hardwood, Recent Furnace, A/C & HWT (2021), Corian Counters in Eat-in Kitchen and both Baths, new Stainless Steel Whirlpool oven/range & microwave, custom high end blinds throughout. En-suite primary bedroom with double door entry and huge walk in w/ California Closet shelving. Spacious living room, formal dining room, in - unit laundry. Lovely balcony with awning. Enjoy maintenance free living at it's best with a phenomenal pool, professional landscaping, beautiful fountain, clubhouse rentals & community events. HOA includes Verizon Fios, internet & Cable.

19. 2025-11-21
    listed $274,900 Active
20. 2016-06-23
    soldstatus $164,900 Closed Sale or Rented
21. 2016-06-21
    soldstatus $164,900
22. 2016-04-27
    status Pending Sale
23. 2016-03-28
    listed $164,900 Active
24. 2011-06-26
    soldstatus $143,000
25. 2011-06-21
    soldstatus $143,000
26. 2011-04-05
    listed $149,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,614 · $218/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,588 · $299/mo
• Expected delta: +$973/yr (+$81/mo · 37.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,952
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,119
• − Property taxes: −$2,614
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,156
• − Management: −$2,156
• − HOA: −$6,612
• − Depreciation: −$7,852
• Taxable loss: −$10,906
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,617
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,651/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Williamsville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3631470
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $79,907
• Composite: 62.59/100
• National rank: #678
• State rank: #114 of 590 in NY

Livability — Williamsville

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #44
• US rank: #693

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living C Crime C Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 55,255
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 55,255
• Household income: $101,615
• Rent vs Own: 25.0% rent · 75.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1956.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Asian 8% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 15% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -301.37%
• Current HPI: 322.6947
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.01%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+80.1% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $269,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-02-02 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2026-02-02 Listed $274,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-11-21 Listed $274,900 WNYREIS
• 2016-06-23 Sold (MLS) $164,900 WNYREIS
• 2016-06-21 Sold (Public Records) $164,900 Public Records
• 2016-04-27 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2016-03-28 Listed $164,900 WNYREIS
• 2011-06-26 Sold (MLS) $143,000 WNYREIS
• 2011-06-21 Sold (Public Records) $143,000 Public Records
• 2011-04-05 Listed $149,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+10.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,614 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.