11651 NW 127 Ln

Manatee Road, FL 32626

$205,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,959 sqft · Built 1992 · Manufactured · Active · 89 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,814/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax + insurance: −$294
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$381
• Net cashflow: $64/mo
• Annual: $765/yr
• Cap rate: 6.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.33%
• DSCR: 1.06
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $57,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $205k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $64 ($765/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (11.5% below list).
• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $181k (11.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#815 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Levy (rural): math 45% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #54 of 73 in FL (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Nature Coast Middle School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #399 of 571 statewide, top 71%, 90 students, 82% FRL, charter) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 62% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 204 active listings in the ZIP; 199 units permitted in Levy County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Levy County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $31k; list at $205k implies a 561% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.7% in Manatee Road — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.