11651 NW 127 Ln · Manatee Road, FL 32626

$205,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,959 sqft · Manufactured public records · 89 Days on market

Built 1992 1.44 ac lot Est $192k · 7% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• ARV discount +4.4/15.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't miss this fantastic opportunity to own a spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offering 1,959 square feet, located in the peaceful and desirable Deere River Estate subdivision. Nestled in a quiet neighborhood, this property provides the perfect blend of comfort, space, and natural surroundings. Situated on a concrete slab and fully fenced, the home overlooks neighboring woods—giving you a front-row seat to local wildlife and serene views. The split floor plan features generously sized bedrooms and an open, airy layout ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. Enjoy relaxing or hosting guests on the oversized screened-in front porch, a true highlight of the home. Inside, the wide-open kitchen boasts tons of cabinet space, stainless steel appliances and flows seamlessly into the main living areas. The large family room features a cozy wood-burning fireplace, perfect for gathering with family and friends. Additional features include a Saltwater treatment system, 50-amp RV hookup, inside laundry room with washer, dryer, and utility tub, Newer 10' x 12' storage shed, High-speed Wi-Fi availability. Conveniently located just minutes from Manatee Springs State Park and Chiefland Golf and Country Club, and only a short drive to shopping, dining, and everyday essentials. This property offers the perfect combination of space, location, and lifestyle—schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Fully fenced
• Concrete slab
• Wide-open kitchen

Tags

• DEERE RIVER ESTATE SUBDIVISION
• CONCRETE SLAB
• FULLY FENCED
• OVERLOOKS NEIGHBORING WOODS
• WIDE-OPEN KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is approximately 1.44 acres (1 to less than 2 acres); Asphalt road access; Zoned residential; Living area and building area recorded from public records
• HOA & community: No HOA association listed; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Boat parking; Driveway parking; RV access/parking
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; High-speed internet available (BB/HS); Cable connected; Electricity connected
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single-story; Faces south; Homestead exempt
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Slab foundation; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Outdoor lighting; Wire fencing; Located on a cul-de-sac

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heat; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; High ceilings; Split-bedroom layout; Walk-in closets; Window treatments; Wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Inside laundry; Water softener

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $64 ($765/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (11.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $181k (11.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.7% in Manatee Road — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#815 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Levy (rural): math 45% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #54 of 73 in FL (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Nature Coast Middle School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #399 of 571 statewide, top 71%, 90 students, 82% FRL, charter) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 62% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 204 active listings in the ZIP; 199 units permitted in Levy County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Levy County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $31k; list at $205k implies a 561% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $181,356 (11.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.33%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $191,982
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12650 NW 117th Ave	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,728 (-12%)	14mo	$170,000	$98	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-29,163
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-20,177
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32626

• Home prices YoY: -6.9%
• Active inventory: 204
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,814 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$209 /mo · $2,502/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$381
• Net cashflow: $64

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,733

Max offer price $205,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $180	-5% $122	+0% $64	+5% $6	+10% $-52
Rent	-10% $-80	-5% $-8	+0% $64	+5% $135	+10% $207
Rate	-1.0pp $167	-0.5pp $116	base $64	+0.5pp $11	+1.0pp $-43

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $205,000 Active 89 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $205,000 Active 86 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $205,000 Active 85 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   price $205,000 Active 84 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $215,000 Active 84 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,000 Active 83 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $215,000 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $215,000 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $215,000 Active 78 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $215,000 Active 77 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $215,000 Active 76 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $215,000 Active 75 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $215,000 Active 72 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $215,000 Active 71 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $215,000 Active 70 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $215,000 Active 69 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $215,000 Active 68 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $215,000 Active 67 DOM
19. 2026-04-24
    price $215,000 1408-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1408 chars)

    Don't miss this fantastic opportunity to own a spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offering 1,959 square feet, located in the peaceful and desirable Deere River Estate subdivision. Nestled in a quiet neighborhood, this property provides the perfect blend of comfort, space, and natural surroundings. Situated on a concrete slab and fully fenced, the home overlooks neighboring woods—giving you a front-row seat to local wildlife and serene views. The split floor plan features generously sized bedrooms and an open, airy layout ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. Enjoy relaxing or hosting guests on the oversized screened-in front porch, a true highlight of the home. Inside, the wide-open kitchen boasts tons of cabinet space, stainless steel appliances and flows seamlessly into the main living areas. The large family room features a cozy wood-burning fireplace, perfect for gathering with family and friends. Additional features include a Saltwater treatment system, 50-amp RV hookup, inside laundry room with washer, dryer, and utility tub, Newer 10' x 12' storage shed, High-speed Wi-Fi availability. Conveniently located just minutes from Manatee Springs State Park and Chiefland Golf and Country Club, and only a short drive to shopping, dining, and everyday essentials. This property offers the perfect combination of space, location, and lifestyle—schedule your showing today!

20. 2026-04-24
    price $215,000

    Show marketing remark (1408 chars)

    Don't miss this fantastic opportunity to own a spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offering 1,959 square feet, located in the peaceful and desirable Deere River Estate subdivision. Nestled in a quiet neighborhood, this property provides the perfect blend of comfort, space, and natural surroundings. Situated on a concrete slab and fully fenced, the home overlooks neighboring woods—giving you a front-row seat to local wildlife and serene views. The split floor plan features generously sized bedrooms and an open, airy layout ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. Enjoy relaxing or hosting guests on the oversized screened-in front porch, a true highlight of the home. Inside, the wide-open kitchen boasts tons of cabinet space, stainless steel appliances and flows seamlessly into the main living areas. The large family room features a cozy wood-burning fireplace, perfect for gathering with family and friends. Additional features include a Saltwater treatment system, 50-amp RV hookup, inside laundry room with washer, dryer, and utility tub, Newer 10' x 12' storage shed, High-speed Wi-Fi availability. Conveniently located just minutes from Manatee Springs State Park and Chiefland Golf and Country Club, and only a short drive to shopping, dining, and everyday essentials. This property offers the perfect combination of space, location, and lifestyle—schedule your showing today!

21. 2026-03-25
    listed $225,000 Active 1408-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1408 chars)

    Don't miss this fantastic opportunity to own a spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offering 1,959 square feet, located in the peaceful and desirable Deere River Estate subdivision. Nestled in a quiet neighborhood, this property provides the perfect blend of comfort, space, and natural surroundings. Situated on a concrete slab and fully fenced, the home overlooks neighboring woods—giving you a front-row seat to local wildlife and serene views. The split floor plan features generously sized bedrooms and an open, airy layout ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. Enjoy relaxing or hosting guests on the oversized screened-in front porch, a true highlight of the home. Inside, the wide-open kitchen boasts tons of cabinet space, stainless steel appliances and flows seamlessly into the main living areas. The large family room features a cozy wood-burning fireplace, perfect for gathering with family and friends. Additional features include a Saltwater treatment system, 50-amp RV hookup, inside laundry room with washer, dryer, and utility tub, Newer 10' x 12' storage shed, High-speed Wi-Fi availability. Conveniently located just minutes from Manatee Springs State Park and Chiefland Golf and Country Club, and only a short drive to shopping, dining, and everyday essentials. This property offers the perfect combination of space, location, and lifestyle—schedule your showing today!

22. 2026-03-24
    listed $225,000 Active
23. 2013-01-29
    soldstatus $31,000 419-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    Lots of space and privacy here with over 1950 SF of living space inside with two large living rooms and one with a fireplace! The roomy island kitchen has lots of cabinets and counter space and room for a breakfast table too! You will love the huge screened porch out front plus the attached carport for easy parking! All this located on 1.44 acres of privacy located at the end of a cul-de-sac! Come take a look today!

24. 2013-01-29
    soldstatus $31,000

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    Lots of space and privacy here with over 1950 SF of living space inside with two large living rooms and one with a fireplace! The roomy island kitchen has lots of cabinets and counter space and room for a breakfast table too! You will love the huge screened porch out front plus the attached carport for easy parking! All this located on 1.44 acres of privacy located at the end of a cul-de-sac! Come take a look today!

25. 2013-01-15
    listed $31,499 419-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    Lots of space and privacy here with over 1950 SF of living space inside with two large living rooms and one with a fireplace! The roomy island kitchen has lots of cabinets and counter space and room for a breakfast table too! You will love the huge screened porch out front plus the attached carport for easy parking! All this located on 1.44 acres of privacy located at the end of a cul-de-sac! Come take a look today!

26. 2012-12-20
    listed $31,499

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,502 · $209/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,502 · $209/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 7% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,763
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$2,502
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,741
• − Management: −$1,741
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$2,694
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$646
• After-tax cash flow: $1,411/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Levy
• NCES district ID: 1201140
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,254
• Composite: 36.42/100
• National rank: #4673
• State rank: #54 of 73 in FL

Livability — Manatee Road

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #815
• US rank: #19826

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing B- Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,994

Population outlook (Levy County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,536 people
• By 2030: 34,498 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 30,294 · -17.1%
• By 2050: 26,368 · -27.8%
• By 2075: 19,003 · -48.0%
• By 2100: 13,169 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 11% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Levy

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.3) · D 24.6% · R 74.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.3pp toward R · 2008: -26.9pp · 2024: -50.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.3 2020: R+45.6 2016: R+44.8 2012: R+32.2 2008: R+26.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -21.03%
• Current HPI: 282.05
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+582.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $215,000 DGLMLS
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $215,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Listed $225,000 DGLMLS
• 2026-03-24 Listed $225,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-01-29 Sold (MLS) $31,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-01-29 Sold (MLS) $31,000 DGLMLS
• 2013-01-15 Listed $31,499 DGLMLS
• 2012-12-20 Listed $31,499 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+9.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,502 · +12.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.